| Consensus estimates [EUR m] | Q1 2024 | FY 2024 | Q1 2025 E | FY 2025 E | FY 2026 E | FY 2027 E | FY 2028 E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SALES | |||||||
| Group sales | 6,650.0 | 27,057.8 | 7,003.9 | 28,397.9 | 29,576.3 | 31,334.5 | 32,240.6 |
| Published growth (%), group | -7.3% | -2.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 2.9% |
| Significant perimeter impact (%), group | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Currency impact (%), group | -3.9% | -2.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Energy impact (%), group | -5.5% | -2.2% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Comparable growth (%), group | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% |
| Gas & Services sales | 6,358.0 | 25,810.0 | 6,711.9 | 27,053.1 | 28,140.4 | 29,798.4 | 31,562.3 |
| Published growth (%), G&S | -7.8% | -2.1% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% |
| Significant perimeter impact (%), G&S | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Currency impact (%), G&S | -4.1% | -2.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Energy impact (%), G&S | -5.7% | -2.3% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Comparable growth (%), G&S | 2.0% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% |
| Engineering & Construction sales | 92.0 | 412.0 | 97.0 | 431.2 | 441.5 | 463.3 | 496.5 |
| Published growth (%), E&C | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 7.2% |
| Global Markets & Technologies sales | 200.0 | 836.0 | 203.0 | 844.0 | 901.7 | 978.0 | 1,073.0 |
| Published growth (%), GM&T | 3.7% | -2.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 9.7% |
| P&L | |||||||
| Group sales (P&L) | 6,650.0 | 27,057.8 | 7,003.9 | 28,397.9 | 29,576.3 | 31,334.5 | 32,240.6 |
| Published growth (%) (P&L) | -7.3% | -2.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 2.9% |
| EBITDA | - | 7,897 | - | 8,470 | 9,209 | 9,914 | 10,599 |
| D&A | - | -2,505 | - | -2,615 | -2,733 | -2,860 | -3,004 |
| Operating Income Recurring (OIR) | - | 5,391 | - | 5,847 | 6,444 | 7,054 | 7,510 |
| OIR margin (%) | - | 19.9% | - | 20.5% | 21.6% | 22.5% | 23.0% |
| OIR G&S | - | 5,555 | - | 6,052 | 6,584 | 7,198 | 7,798 |
| OIR margin G&S (%) | - | 21.5% | - | 22.2% | 23.0% | 24.0% | 24.5% |
| Exceptionals | - | -446 | - | -250 | -250 | -200 | -125 |
| Group operating income | - | 4,946 | - | 5,629 | 6,254 | 6,936 | 7,455 |
| Net financial costs & expenses | - | -418 | - | -400 | -380 | -375 | -388 |
| Income taxes | - | -1,087 | - | -1,313 | -1,472 | -1,647 | -1,775 |
| Tax rate (%) | - | 24.0% | - | 25.1% | 25.5% | 25.5% | 25.0% |
| Share of profit of associates | - | -1 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net income from continuing operations | - | 3,440 | - | 3,934 | 4,369 | 4,816 | 5,325 |
| Profit for the period | - | 3,440 | - | 3,934 | 4,369 | 4,816 | 5,325 |
| Minority interests | - | -134 | - | -143 | -157 | -171 | -171 |
| Net profit (Group share) | - | 3,306.1 | - | 3,776.5 | 4,221.0 | 4,673.9 | 5,130.2 |
| Net profit growth (%) | - | 7.4% | - | 14.2% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 9.8% |
| Weighted average number of shares (m) | - | 576.5 | - | 576.5 | 576.5 | 576.5 | 576.5 |
| As published earnings per share (EPS in EUR) | - | 5.74 | - | 6.55 | 7.33 | 8.11 | 8.90 |
| As published EPS growth (%) | - | 7.3% | - | 14.1% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 9.7% |
| Dividend per share (DPS in EUR) | - | 3.30 | - | 3.50 | 3.70 | 4.00 | 4.08 |
| DPS growth (%) | - | 13.7% | - | 6.1% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 2.0% |
| CASH FLOW | |||||||
| Net cash flows from operating activities | - | 6,539 | - | 6,676 | 7,225 | 8,027 | 8,054 |
| Purchase of property, plant and equipment and intangible assets | - | -3,525 | - | -3,805 | -4,069 | -4,328 | -4,568 |
| Acquisition of subsidiaries and financial assets | - | -251 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Proceeds from sale of property, plant and equipment and intangible assets and proceeds from sale of financial assets and dividend received from equity affiliates | - | 193 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net cash flows from investing activities | - | -3,583 | - | -3,811 | -4,069 | -4,325 | -4,568 |
| PPE / Sales (%) | - | 13.0% | - | 13.6% | 13.8% | 13.8% | 13.7% |
| Net Industrial and Financial CAPEX / Sales (%) | - | 13.2% | - | 13.6% | 13.8% | 13.8% | 13.7% |
| Free cash flow (net cash flows from operating and investing activities) | - | 2,956 | - | 2,883 | 2,934 | 3,438 | 3,396 |
| Dividends paid | - | -1,808 | - | -1,995 | -2,150 | -2,280 | -2,335 |
| NET DEBT | |||||||
| Net debt at the end of the period (excl. IFRS 16) | - | -9,159 | - | -8,402 | -8,020 | -7,020 | -5,959 |
This document has been issued by Vara Research GmbH for information purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment advice. It is based on estimates and forecasts of various analysts regarding revenues, earnings and business developments of the relevant company. The company did not participate in the compilation of the estimates and it does not endorse them. Such estimates and forecasts cannot be independently verified by reason of the subjective character. Vara Research GmbH gives no guarantee, representation or warranty and is not responsible or liable as to its accuracy and completeness.
