| KPI | (m CHF) | Q3 2023 | Q4 2023 | FY 2023 | Q3 2024 E | Q4 2024 E | FY 2024 E | FY 2025 E | FY 2026 E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | Number of Estimates | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | |||
| Revenues | Highest | 886.0 | 941.5 | 3,493.6 | 3,720.3 | 4,034.5 | |||
| Revenues | Consensus (Mean) | 904.0 | 908.0 | 3,590.0 | 873.4 | 901.8 | 3,441.0 | 3,579.4 | 3,778.7 |
| Revenues | Median | 874.9 | 910.7 | 3,452.0 | 3,564.0 | 3,769.0 | |||
| Revenues | Lowest | 850.0 | 814.0 | 3,350.0 | 3,465.0 | 3,436.4 | |||
| Gross margin (reported) in % | Number of Estimates | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | |||
| Gross margin (reported) in % | Highest | 29 | 31 | 28 | 30 | 33 | |||
| Gross margin (reported) in % | Consensus (Mean) | 23 | 25 | 23 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 30 |
| Gross margin (reported) in % | Median | 27 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 31 | |||
| Gross margin (reported) in % | Lowest | 24 | 18 | 24 | 27 | 28 | |||
| Gross margin (adjusted) in % | Number of Estimates | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | |||
| Gross margin (adjusted) in % | Highest | 31 | 31 | 30 | 31 | 34 | |||
| Gross margin (adjusted) in % | Consensus (Mean) | 29 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 29 | 30 | 32 |
| Gross margin (adjusted) in % | Median | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 32 | |||
| Gross margin (adjusted) in % | Lowest | 29 | 28 | 29 | 29 | 30 | |||
| EBITDA (reported) | Number of Estimates | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | |||
| EBITDA (reported) | Highest | 196.9 | 205.9 | 492.8 | 730.9 | 878.4 | |||
| EBITDA (reported) | Consensus (Mean) | 142.0 | 116.0 | 462.0 | 144.2 | 137.8 | 380.9 | 629.6 | 776.0 |
| EBITDA (reported) | Median | 133.5 | 138.4 | 380.5 | 621.0 | 810.0 | |||
| EBITDA (reported) | Lowest | 112.8 | 68.3 | 285.5 | 527.7 | 596.5 | |||
| EBITDA margin (reported) in % | Number of Estimates | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | |||
| EBITDA margin (reported) in % | Highest | 23 | 22 | 14 | 21 | 23 | |||
| EBITDA margin (reported) in % | Consensus (Mean) | 16 | 13 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 11 | 18 | 21 |
| EBITDA margin (reported) in % | Median | 15 | 15 | 11 | 18 | 21 | |||
| EBITDA margin (reported) in % | Lowest | 13 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 17 | |||
| EBITDA (adjusted) | Number of Estimates | 7 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 7 | |||
| EBITDA (adjusted) | Highest | 179.4 | 187.3 | 1,033.0 | 819.5 | 939.5 | |||
| EBITDA (adjusted) | Consensus (Mean) | 160.0 | 150.0 | 604.0 | 164.5 | 174.8 | 667.0 | 716.0 | 861.9 |
| EBITDA (adjusted) | Median | 163.7 | 174.8 | 598.8 | 719.4 | 878.2 | |||
| EBITDA (adjusted) | Lowest | 152.3 | 163.3 | 574.5 | 603.0 | 700.1 | |||
| EBITDA margin (adjusted) in % | Number of Estimates | 7 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 7 | |||
| EBITDA margin (adjusted) in % | Highest | 20 | 20 | 30 | 23 | 26 | |||
| EBITDA margin (adjusted) in % | Consensus (Mean) | 18 | 17 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 23 |
| EBITDA margin (adjusted) in % | Median | 18 | 19 | 17 | 20 | 23 | |||
| EBITDA margin (adjusted) in % | Lowest | 18 | 19 | 17 | 17 | 20 | |||
| EBIT IFRS | Number of Estimates | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | |||
| EBIT IFRS | Highest | 54.3 | 68.0 | -497.2 | 344.0 | 431.6 | |||
| EBIT IFRS | Consensus (Mean) | -12.0 | -4.0 | -1,430.0 | 33.2 | 34.8 | -557.8 | 223.5 | 351.2 |
| EBIT IFRS | Median | 43.8 | 56.2 | -532.3 | 211.6 | 368.9 | |||
| EBIT IFRS | Lowest | -2.7 | -61.7 | -680.5 | 87.7 | 116.5 | |||
| EBIT IFRS margin in % | Number of Estimates | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | |||
| EBIT IFRS margin in % | Highest | 6 | 7 | -14 | 9 | 11 | |||
| EBIT IFRS margin in % | Consensus (Mean) | -1 | 0 | -40 | 4 | 4 | -16 | 6 | 9 |
| EBIT IFRS margin in % | Median | 5 | 6 | -15 | 6 | 10 | |||
| EBIT IFRS margin in % | Lowest | 0 | -7 | -20 | 3 | 3 | |||
| Operating result (EBIT) (adjusted) | Number of Estimates | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8 | |||
| Operating result (EBIT) (adjusted) | Highest | 88.9 | 105.2 | 294.0 | 393.4 | 551.6 | |||
| Operating result (EBIT) (adjusted) | Consensus (Mean) | 71.0 | 62.0 | 233.0 | 76.5 | 89.5 | 260.8 | 360.0 | 481.4 |
| Operating result (EBIT) (adjusted) | Median | 74.4 | 84.8 | 255.5 | 369.0 | 492.5 | |||
| Operating result (EBIT) (adjusted) | Lowest | 69.7 | 80.3 | 222.0 | 327.5 | 356.5 | |||
| EBIT margin (adjusted) in % | Number of Estimates | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8 | |||
| EBIT margin (adjusted) in % | Highest | 10 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 15 | |||
| EBIT margin (adjusted) in % | Consensus (Mean) | 8 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 13 |
| EBIT margin (adjusted) in % | Median | 9 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 13 | |||
| EBIT margin (adjusted) in % | Lowest | 8 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 10 | |||
| EPS IFRS (diluted) | Number of Estimates | 5 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 8 | |||
| EPS IFRS (diluted) | Highest | 0.00 | 0.06 | -0.71 | 0.17 | 0.25 | |||
| EPS IFRS (diluted) | Consensus (Mean) | -0.21 | -0.18 | -5.20 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.79 | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| EPS IFRS (diluted) | Median | -0.01 | 0.00 | -0.78 | 0.04 | 0.19 | |||
| EPS IFRS (diluted) | Lowest | -0.05 | -0.12 | -0.91 | -0.12 | -0.09 | |||
| EPS adj. (diluted) | Number of Estimates | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | |||
| EPS adj. (diluted) | Highest | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.21 | 0.38 | |||
| EPS adj. (diluted) | Consensus (Mean) | 0.11 | -0.03 | 0.16 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| EPS adj. (diluted) | Median | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.16 | 0.26 | |||
| EPS adj. (diluted) | Lowest | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.15 | |||
| CAPEX | Number of Estimates | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 8 | |||
| CAPEX | Highest | -86.2 | -91.5 | -364.0 | -200.0 | -220.0 | |||
| CAPEX | Consensus (Mean) | -262.0 | -222.0 | -1,049.0 | -109.9 | -109.4 | -505.6 | -334.7 | -353.5 |
| CAPEX | Median | -113.3 | -110.0 | -506.0 | -335.7 | -353.3 | |||
| CAPEX | Lowest | -130.0 | -126.8 | -597.0 | -480.3 | -460.1 | |||
| Operating cash flow | Number of Estimates | 3 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 | |||
| Operating cash flow | Highest | 174.9 | 142.5 | 439.6 | 759.8 | 837.2 | |||
| Operating cash flow | Consensus (Mean) | 141.0 | 34.0 | 493.0 | 88.0 | 120.1 | 367.7 | 601.9 | 689.6 |
| Operating cash flow | Median | 66.8 | 122.4 | 380.2 | 616.9 | 674.3 | |||
| Operating cash flow | Lowest | 22.2 | 95.2 | 227.4 | 452.7 | 566.9 | |||
| Free cash flow | Number of Estimates | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 5 | |||
| Free cash flow | Highest | 15.6 | 85.2 | -141.0 | 307.0 | 317.3 | |||
| Free cash flow | Consensus (Mean) | -70.0 | -125.0 | -332.0 | -45.0 | 5.5 | -197.0 | 208.0 | 234.1 |
| Free cash flow | Median | -42.7 | 5.8 | -184.0 | 185.8 | 257.6 | |||
| Free cash flow | Lowest | -107.8 | -74.5 | -296.2 | 139.4 | 99.0 | |||
| OS, Revenues | Number of Estimates | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| OS, Revenues | Highest | 446.4 | 459.8 | 1,623.2 | 1,688.1 | 1,840.1 | |||
| OS, Revenues | Consensus (Mean) | - | - | - | 446.4 | 459.8 | 1,623.2 | 1,688.1 | 1,840.1 |
| OS, Revenues | Median | 446.4 | 459.8 | 1,623.2 | 1,688.1 | 1,840.1 | |||
| OS, Revenues | Lowest | 446.4 | 459.8 | 1,623.2 | 1,688.1 | 1,840.1 | |||
| CSA, Revenues | Number of Estimates | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| CSA, Revenues | Highest | 203.2 | 214.4 | 874.6 | 868.0 | 915.1 | |||
| CSA, Revenues | Consensus (Mean) | - | - | - | 203.2 | 214.4 | 874.6 | 868.0 | 915.1 |
| CSA, Revenues | Median | 203.2 | 214.4 | 874.6 | 868.0 | 915.1 | |||
| CSA, Revenues | Lowest | 203.2 | 214.4 | 874.6 | 868.0 | 915.1 | |||
| L&S, Revenues | Number of Estimates | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | |||
| L&S, Revenues | Highest | 245.8 | 286.8 | 1,109.0 | 1,109.0 | 1,127.0 | |||
| L&S, Revenues | Consensus (Mean) | 256.0 | 279.0 | 1,165.0 | 230.9 | 259.0 | 1,007.3 | 1,009.1 | 1,028.3 |
| L&S, Revenues | Median | 230.8 | 257.9 | 983.3 | 995.9 | 1,036.1 | |||
| L&S, Revenues | Lowest | 216.3 | 233.6 | 940.9 | 919.9 | 937.4 | |||
| L&S, Operating result (EBIT) (adjusted) | Number of Estimates | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |||
| L&S, Operating result (EBIT) (adjusted) | Highest | 29.1 | 30.4 | 138.5 | 139.0 | 137.0 | |||
| L&S, Operating result (EBIT) (adjusted) | Consensus (Mean) | 35.0 | 33.0 | 170.0 | 28.6 | 16.8 | 128.3 | 130.5 | 131.3 |
| L&S, Operating result (EBIT) (adjusted) | Median | 28.6 | 16.8 | 133.0 | 133.0 | 135.0 | |||
| L&S, Operating result (EBIT) (adjusted) | Lowest | 28.1 | 3.2 | 113.4 | 119.6 | 121.9 | |||
| L&S, EBIT margin (adjusted) in % | Number of Estimates | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |||
| L&S, EBIT margin (adjusted) in % | Highest | 13 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 13 | |||
| L&S, EBIT margin (adjusted) in % | Consensus (Mean) | 14 | 12 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| L&S, EBIT margin (adjusted) in % | Median | 12 | 7 | 12 | 13 | 13 | |||
| L&S, EBIT margin (adjusted) in % | Lowest | 12 | 1 | 11 | 12 | 12 |
This document has been issued by Vara Research GmbH for information purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment advice. It is based on estimates and forecasts of various analysts regarding revenues, earnings and business developments of the relevant company. The company did not participate in the compilation of the estimates and it does not endorse them. Such estimates and forecasts cannot be independently verified by reason of the subjective character. Vara Research GmbH gives no guarantee, representation or warranty and is not responsible or liable as to its accuracy and completeness.
