| KPI | [EUR m] | Q1 2024 | FY 2024 | Q1 2025 E | Q2 2025 E | Q3 2025 E | Q4 2025 E | FY 2025 E | FY 2026 E | FY 2027 E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comparable EBITDA | Number of Estimates | 15 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 16 | 15 | 15 | ||
| Comparable EBITDA | Highest | 273.6 | 357.2 | 474.6 | 504.4 | 1,537.3 | 2,394.1 | 2,879.6 | ||
| Comparable EBITDA | Mean | 210.4 | 289.0 | 373.4 | 388.5 | 1,251.6 | 1,741.5 | 2,090.7 | ||
| Comparable EBITDA | Consensus (Median) | 551.0 | 1,252.0 | 211.7 | 284.0 | 375.7 | 387.0 | 1,256.1 | 1,660.0 | 2,021.0 |
| Comparable EBITDA | Lowest | 149.0 | 200.5 | 274.7 | 263.5 | 936.0 | 1,474.0 | 1,540.0 | ||
| Comparable net profit | Number of Estimates | 15 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 16 | 15 | 15 | ||
| Comparable net profit | Highest | 4.1 | 74.4 | 164.3 | 192.2 | 389.9 | 998.7 | 1,384.6 | ||
| Comparable net profit | Mean | -60.8 | 6.4 | 78.6 | 91.3 | 104.4 | 506.0 | 773.1 | ||
| Comparable net profit | Consensus (Median) | 256.0 | 131.0 | -57.8 | 12.1 | 85.5 | 110.8 | 90.7 | 502.0 | 749.0 |
| Comparable net profit | Lowest | -109.0 | -76.5 | -22.7 | -32.2 | -150.0 | 246.0 | 320.0 | ||
| Comparable EPS (EUR) | Number of Estimates | 14 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 16 | 15 | 15 | ||
| Comparable EPS (EUR) | Highest | 0.01 | 0.10 | 0.21 | 0.25 | 0.51 | 1.30 | 1.80 | ||
| Comparable EPS (EUR) | Mean | -0.08 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.14 | 0.66 | 1.01 | ||
| Comparable EPS (EUR) | Consensus (Median) | 0.33 | 0.17 | -0.07 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.15 | 0.12 | 0.65 | 0.98 |
| Comparable EPS (EUR) | Lowest | -0.14 | -0.10 | -0.03 | -0.04 | -0.20 | 0.32 | 0.42 | ||
| Renewable Products Comparable EBITDA | Number of Estimates | 15 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 14 | 14 | ||
| Renewable Products Comparable EBITDA | Highest | 81.5 | 163.4 | 254.7 | 307.5 | 762.5 | 1,653.9 | 1,997.8 | ||
| Renewable Products Comparable EBITDA | Mean | 27.5 | 95.4 | 170.5 | 209.5 | 497.7 | 1,014.5 | 1,379.9 | ||
| Renewable Products Comparable EBITDA | Consensus (Median) | 242.0 | 514.0 | 31.4 | 103.6 | 175.8 | 218.0 | 501.8 | 993.9 | 1,368.2 |
| Renewable Products Comparable EBITDA | Lowest | -43.0 | 2.5 | 84.0 | 122.0 | 177.0 | 660.0 | 898.0 | ||
| Renewable Products Sales volumes (1000 tons) | Number of Estimates | 14 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 13 | 13 | ||
| Renewable Products Sales volumes (1000 tons) | Highest | 1,206.3 | 1,206.3 | 1,206.3 | 1,197.5 | 4,742.3 | 4,877.0 | 5,748.0 | ||
| Renewable Products Sales volumes (1000 tons) | Mean | 969.8 | 1,036.5 | 1,095.9 | 1,098.6 | 4,203.4 | 4,591.9 | 5,322.1 | ||
| Renewable Products Sales volumes (1000 tons) | Consensus (Median) | 849.0 | 3,729.0 | 962.5 | 1,037.3 | 1,107.7 | 1,123.4 | 4,219.0 | 4,657.0 | 5,377.7 |
| Renewable Products Sales volumes (1000 tons) | Lowest | 799.3 | 809.9 | 981.8 | 972.8 | 3,572.7 | 4,165.0 | 4,590.0 | ||
| Renewable Products comparable sales margin (USD/ton) | Number of Estimates | 14 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 13 | ||
| Renewable Products comparable sales margin (USD/ton) | Highest | 299.7 | 388.3 | 435.0 | 495.0 | 399.3 | 528.7 | 550.0 | ||
| Renewable Products comparable sales margin (USD/ton) | Mean | 244.6 | 304.1 | 351.7 | 382.8 | 319.4 | 415.4 | 447.3 | ||
| Renewable Products comparable sales margin (USD/ton) | Consensus (Median) | 562.0 | 377.0 | 241.8 | 305.1 | 354.4 | 385.9 | 325.7 | 415.8 | 438.0 |
| Renewable Products comparable sales margin (USD/ton) | Lowest | 164.0 | 238.0 | 260.0 | 283.0 | 227.0 | 309.0 | 338.0 | ||
| Oil Products Comparable EBITDA | Number of Estimates | 15 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 14 | 14 | ||
| Oil Products Comparable EBITDA | Highest | 177.7 | 214.0 | 216.1 | 208.0 | 723.9 | 752.2 | 760.2 | ||
| Oil Products Comparable EBITDA | Mean | 158.7 | 164.6 | 173.7 | 160.7 | 654.9 | 633.2 | 641.6 | ||
| Oil Products Comparable EBITDA | Consensus (Median) | 278.0 | 633.0 | 163.0 | 163.7 | 167.1 | 164.8 | 660.0 | 653.6 | 654.4 |
| Oil Products Comparable EBITDA | Lowest | 138.5 | 118.2 | 118.2 | 118.2 | 494.4 | 401.0 | 472.9 | ||
| Oil Products Sales volumes (1000 tons) | Number of Estimates | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 10 | ||
| Oil Products Sales volumes (1000 tons) | Highest | 3,131.6 | 3,131.6 | 3,131.6 | 3,349.0 | 12,526.4 | 12,526.4 | 12,526.4 | ||
| Oil Products Sales volumes (1000 tons) | Mean | 2,896.2 | 2,929.0 | 2,987.3 | 2,997.6 | 11,810.6 | 11,834.2 | 11,861.7 | ||
| Oil Products Sales volumes (1000 tons) | Consensus (Median) | 2,553.0 | 10,147.0 | 2,875.9 | 2,966.9 | 2,968.8 | 2,968.8 | 11,777.0 | 11,765.5 | 11,842.4 |
| Oil Products Sales volumes (1000 tons) | Lowest | 2,750.0 | 2,328.0 | 2,804.7 | 2,844.0 | 11,520.0 | 11,606.4 | 11,500.0 | ||
| Total refining margin (USD/bbl) | Number of Estimates | 14 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 14 | ||
| Total refining margin (USD/bbl) | Highest | 12.50 | 14.62 | 14.89 | 12.18 | 13.46 | 12.00 | 12.00 | ||
| Total refining margin (USD/bbl) | Mean | 10.91 | 11.06 | 11.23 | 10.60 | 10.88 | 10.52 | 10.48 | ||
| Total refining margin (USD/bbl) | Consensus (Median) | 20.40 | 14.10 | 11.35 | 11.00 | 11.00 | 10.94 | 11.10 | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| Total refining margin (USD/bbl) | Lowest | 4.89 | 8.03 | 8.69 | 6.41 | 7.01 | 6.87 | 6.68 | ||
| Marketing & Services Comparable EBITDA | Number of Estimates | 15 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 14 | 14 | ||
| Marketing & Services Comparable EBITDA | Highest | 27.8 | 31.5 | 35.0 | 27.7 | 120.8 | 117.7 | 117.0 | ||
| Marketing & Services Comparable EBITDA | Mean | 24.1 | 27.0 | 31.3 | 24.5 | 108.0 | 109.1 | 110.4 | ||
| Marketing & Services Comparable EBITDA | Consensus (Median) | 23.0 | 101.0 | 23.1 | 25.4 | 31.9 | 25.0 | 106.0 | 109.4 | 112.0 |
| Marketing & Services Comparable EBITDA | Lowest | 22.4 | 23.2 | 24.9 | 20.4 | 95.3 | 96.3 | 97.2 | ||
| Others Comparable EBITDA | Number of Estimates | 13 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 13 | ||
| Others Comparable EBITDA | Highest | 5.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | ||
| Others Comparable EBITDA | Mean | 1.3 | 0.2 | 1.6 | -1.0 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.2 | ||
| Others Comparable EBITDA | Consensus (Median) | 8.0 | -1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Others Comparable EBITDA | Lowest | -1.0 | -6.0 | -1.0 | -18.0 | -11.0 | -11.0 | -11.0 | ||
| Capital expenditure | Number of Estimates | - | - | - | - | 16 | 15 | 15 | ||
| Capital expenditure | Highest | - | - | - | - | -1,058.0 | -1,086.0 | -500.0 | ||
| Capital expenditure | Mean | - | - | - | - | -1,188.7 | -1,181.8 | -650.2 | ||
| Capital expenditure | Consensus (Median) | -291.0 | -1,552.0 | - | - | - | - | -1,200.0 | -1,200.0 | -518.0 |
| Capital expenditure | Lowest | - | - | - | - | -1,252.5 | -1,250.0 | -1,200.0 | ||
| Net Cash generated from operations | Number of Estimates | - | - | - | - | 16 | 15 | 15 | ||
| Net Cash generated from operations | Highest | - | - | - | - | 1,379.0 | 2,042.4 | 2,416.2 | ||
| Net Cash generated from operations | Mean | - | - | - | - | 1,103.6 | 1,474.9 | 1,727.4 | ||
| Net Cash generated from operations | Consensus (Median) | -31.0 | 1,183.0 | - | - | - | - | 1,142.9 | 1,382.0 | 1,701.0 |
| Net Cash generated from operations | Lowest | - | - | - | - | 694.8 | 1,156.4 | 1,139.0 | ||
| DPS (EUR) | Number of Estimates | - | - | - | - | 16 | 15 | 15 | ||
| DPS (EUR) | Highest | - | - | - | - | 0.40 | 0.55 | 0.66 | ||
| DPS (EUR) | Mean | - | - | - | - | 0.20 | 0.25 | 0.35 | ||
| DPS (EUR) | Consensus (Median) | - | 0.20 | - | - | - | - | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| DPS (EUR) | Lowest | - | - | - | - | -0.08 | 0.20 | 0.20 | ||
| Revenue | Number of Estimates | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 14 | ||
| Revenue | Highest | 6,147.3 | 6,175.1 | 6,628.3 | 6,628.3 | 25,579.0 | 28,239.7 | 29,228.7 | ||
| Revenue | Mean | 5,227.8 | 5,017.2 | 5,412.6 | 5,408.7 | 20,770.3 | 21,612.4 | 23,045.3 | ||
| Revenue | Consensus (Median) | 4,801.0 | 20,635.0 | 5,281.1 | 5,018.4 | 5,357.0 | 5,290.0 | 20,513.4 | 21,837.7 | 22,882.9 |
| Revenue | Lowest | 4,363.7 | 4,286.0 | 4,472.8 | 4,405.9 | 17,547.8 | 17,860.2 | 17,633.3 | ||
| Renewable Products Revenue | Number of Estimates | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | ||
| Renewable Products Revenue | Highest | 2,464.4 | 2,450.3 | 2,588.3 | 2,588.3 | 9,622.7 | 13,523.1 | 14,469.7 | ||
| Renewable Products Revenue | Mean | 1,866.8 | 1,899.7 | 2,002.1 | 2,022.7 | 7,791.1 | 9,094.2 | 10,259.8 | ||
| Renewable Products Revenue | Consensus (Median) | 1,766.0 | 7,321.0 | 1,895.2 | 1,949.0 | 2,061.0 | 2,096.5 | 8,075.8 | 9,346.0 | 10,590.9 |
| Renewable Products Revenue | Lowest | 656.9 | 668.2 | 754.4 | 731.5 | 2,811.0 | 3,187.8 | 3,894.7 | ||
| Oil Products Revenue | Number of Estimates | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | ||
| Oil Products Revenue | Highest | 3,750.0 | 3,750.0 | 3,750.0 | 3,970.0 | 15,000.0 | 15,000.0 | 15,000.0 | ||
| Oil Products Revenue | Mean | 2,991.5 | 2,774.4 | 3,059.1 | 3,062.2 | 11,887.2 | 11,764.1 | 11,877.1 | ||
| Oil Products Revenue | Consensus (Median) | 2,669.0 | 11,829.0 | 2,922.7 | 2,822.0 | 3,055.0 | 2,922.7 | 11,995.0 | 11,748.0 | 11,983.0 |
| Oil Products Revenue | Lowest | 2,347.0 | 2,053.0 | 2,028.0 | 1,943.0 | 8,371.0 | 7,679.0 | 7,563.0 | ||
| Marketing & Services Revenue | Number of Estimates | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | ||
| Marketing & Services Revenue | Highest | 1,374.0 | 1,374.0 | 1,374.0 | 1,374.0 | 5,496.0 | 5,496.0 | 5,496.0 | ||
| Marketing & Services Revenue | Mean | 1,173.4 | 1,121.2 | 1,139.4 | 1,133.2 | 4,567.3 | 4,569.6 | 4,635.4 | ||
| Marketing & Services Revenue | Consensus (Median) | 1,234.0 | 4,687.0 | 1,147.0 | 1,111.0 | 1,131.0 | 1,108.0 | 4,498.4 | 4,615.0 | 4,661.0 |
| Marketing & Services Revenue | Lowest | 1,085.0 | 1,018.0 | 1,017.5 | 1,017.4 | 4,221.4 | 3,953.7 | 4,067.7 | ||
| Others Revenue | Number of Estimates | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | ||
| Others Revenue | Highest | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 200.0 | 156.0 | 156.0 | ||
| Others Revenue | Mean | 27.0 | 29.5 | 36.5 | 34.6 | 127.6 | 118.7 | 119.5 | ||
| Others Revenue | Consensus (Median) | 18.0 | 125.0 | 23.5 | 25.0 | 39.5 | 35.1 | 124.0 | 122.0 | 122.0 |
| Others Revenue | Lowest | 18.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 88.0 | 88.0 | 88.0 |
This document has been issued by Vara Research GmbH for information purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment advice. It is based on estimates and forecasts of various analysts regarding revenues, earnings and business developments of the relevant company. The company did not participate in the compilation of the estimates and it does not endorse them. Such estimates and forecasts cannot be independently verified by reason of the subjective character. Vara Research GmbH gives no guarantee, representation or warranty and is not responsible or liable as to its accuracy and completeness.
