| [in Mill. US Dollar] | Q4 2021 | FY 2021 | Q1 2022 E | FY 2022 E | FY 2023 E | FY 2024 E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Integrated Gas | Number of analysts participating | 23 | 10 | 10 | 9 | ||
| Integrated Gas | Highest | 6,368 | 19,489 | 19,716 | 16,922 | ||
| Integrated Gas | Consensus | 4,052 | 8,757 | 4,461 | 16,357 | 15,507 | 12,675 |
| Integrated Gas | Lowest | 3,048 | 11,413 | 11,330 | 8,920 | ||
| Upstream | Number of analysts participating | 23 | 10 | 10 | 9 | ||
| Upstream | Highest | 4,838 | 22,332 | 20,465 | 14,932 | ||
| Upstream | Consensus | 2,832 | 7,950 | 3,608 | 16,076 | 13,693 | 9,834 |
| Upstream | Lowest | 1,851 | 7,303 | 7,559 | 5,430 | ||
| Oil Products (CCS basis) | Number of analysts participating | 23 | 10 | 10 | 9 | ||
| Oil Products (CCS basis) | Highest | 2,159 | 7,018 | 8,776 | 8,549 | ||
| Oil Products (CCS basis) | Consensus | 555 | 3,944 | 1,389 | 5,944 | 6,014 | 6,445 |
| Oil Products (CCS basis) | Lowest | 675 | 4,559 | 3,123 | 4,256 | ||
| Chemicals (CCS basis) | Number of analysts participating | 23 | 10 | 10 | 9 | ||
| Chemicals (CCS basis) | Highest | 55 | 1,350 | 1,837 | 2,527 | ||
| Chemicals (CCS basis) | Consensus | -42 | 1,753 | -51 | 641 | 1,125 | 1,327 |
| Chemicals (CCS basis) | Lowest | -177 | -45 | -559 | -289 | ||
| Corporate | Number of analysts participating | 23 | 11 | 11 | 10 | ||
| Corporate | Highest | -375 | -1,498 | -567 | 377 | ||
| Corporate | Consensus | -889 | -2,686 | -599 | -2,337 | -2,101 | -1,922 |
| Corporate | Lowest | -994 | -2,824 | -2,676 | -2,600 | ||
| Non-controlling interest (CCS basis) | Number of analysts participating | 22 | 10 | 10 | 10 | ||
| Non-controlling interest (CCS basis) | Highest | 146 | -450 | -450 | -425 | ||
| Non-controlling interest (CCS basis) | Consensus | -117 | -429 | -136 | -621 | -605 | -555 |
| Non-controlling interest (CCS basis) | Lowest | -268 | -1,018 | -876 | -686 | ||
| Shell Adjusted Earnings | Number of analysts participating | 25 | 11 | 11 | 10 | ||
| Shell Adjusted Earnings | Highest | 10,928 | 42,057 | 44,152 | 38,695 | ||
| Shell Adjusted Earnings | Consensus | 6,391 | 19,289 | 8,671 | 35,948 | 33,624 | 27,648 |
| Shell Adjusted Earnings | Lowest | 6,531 | 23,581 | 22,115 | 20,336 | ||
| Integrated Gas, adjusted EBITDA (CCS basis) | Number of analysts participating | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | ||
| Integrated Gas, adjusted EBITDA (CCS basis) | Highest | 9,526 | 35,449 | 32,517 | 27,689 | ||
| Integrated Gas, adjusted EBITDA (CCS basis) | Consensus | 6,082 | 16,421 | 6,841 | 27,234 | 26,247 | 20,837 |
| Integrated Gas, adjusted EBITDA (CCS basis) | Lowest | 3,802 | 20,420 | 22,430 | 17,527 | ||
| Upstream, adjusted EBITDA (CCS basis) | Number of analysts participating | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | ||
| Upstream, adjusted EBITDA (CCS basis) | Highest | 12,476 | 49,768 | 48,777 | 41,528 | ||
| Upstream, adjusted EBITDA (CCS basis) | Consensus | 8,491 | 27,358 | 9,779 | 38,892 | 32,404 | 28,641 |
| Upstream, adjusted EBITDA (CCS basis) | Lowest | 4,034 | 15,877 | 16,214 | 23,950 | ||
| Oil Products, adjusted EBITDA (CCS basis) | Number of analysts participating | 16 | 6 | 5 | 4 | ||
| Oil Products, adjusted EBITDA (CCS basis) | Highest | 3,601 | 12,043 | 13,040 | 14,553 | ||
| Oil Products, adjusted EBITDA (CCS basis) | Consensus | 1,742 | 8,821 | 2,774 | 10,893 | 11,174 | 12,585 |
| Oil Products, adjusted EBITDA (CCS basis) | Lowest | 1,883 | 9,321 | 7,559 | 11,923 | ||
| Chemicals, adjusted EBITDA (CCS basis) | Number of analysts participating | 17 | 6 | 5 | 4 | ||
| Chemicals, adjusted EBITDA (CCS basis) | Highest | 321 | 2,598 | 3,496 | 4,404 | ||
| Chemicals, adjusted EBITDA (CCS basis) | Consensus | 168 | 2,959 | 198 | 2,047 | 2,979 | 3,244 |
| Chemicals, adjusted EBITDA (CCS basis) | Lowest | 14 | 1,423 | 2,526 | 2,786 | ||
| Corporate, adjusted EBITDA (CCS basis) | Number of analysts participating | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | ||
| Corporate, adjusted EBITDA (CCS basis) | Highest | 194 | 109 | 54 | -400 | ||
| Corporate, adjusted EBITDA (CCS basis) | Consensus | -133 | -554 | -200 | -486 | -464 | -598 |
| Corporate, adjusted EBITDA (CCS basis) | Lowest | -904 | -800 | -800 | -800 | ||
| Shell Adjusted EBITDA (CCS basis) | Number of analysts participating | 17 | 8 | 7 | 6 | ||
| Shell Adjusted EBITDA (CCS basis) | Highest | 22,263 | 93,372 | 95,268 | 85,807 | ||
| Shell Adjusted EBITDA (CCS basis) | Consensus | 16,349 | 55,004 | 19,654 | 80,744 | 75,552 | 67,259 |
| Shell Adjusted EBITDA (CCS basis) | Lowest | 17,426 | 63,792 | 59,473 | 56,846 | ||
| Cash flow from operating activities | Number of analysts participating | 20 | 7 | 6 | 5 | ||
| Cash flow from operating activities | Highest | 13,270 | 64,838 | 65,789 | 58,279 | ||
| Cash flow from operating activities | Consensus | 8,170 | 45,105 | 8,784 | 56,797 | 60,410 | 53,827 |
| Cash flow from operating activities | Lowest | 5,789 | 52,879 | 54,617 | 49,362 | ||
| of which decrease / (increase) in working capital | Number of analysts participating | 20 | 7 | 6 | 5 | ||
| of which decrease / (increase) in working capital | Highest | -5,000 | -136 | 2,073 | 3,949 | ||
| of which decrease / (increase) in working capital | Consensus | -2,971 | -10,366 | -6,946 | -5,829 | 1,022 | 1,783 |
| of which decrease / (increase) in working capital | Lowest | -7,475 | -10,057 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Cash flow from operating activities excl. working capital movements | Number of analysts participating | 24 | 11 | 11 | 10 | ||
| Cash flow from operating activities excl. working capital movements | Highest | 20,406 | 80,767 | 82,884 | 74,652 | ||
| Cash flow from operating activities excl. working capital movements | Consensus | 11,139 | 55,471 | 15,651 | 64,744 | 62,311 | 55,575 |
| Cash flow from operating activities excl. working capital movements | Lowest | 12,789 | 54,479 | 52,148 | 47,362 | ||
| Oil price assumption Brent | Number of analysts participating | 25 | 11 | 11 | 10 | ||
| Oil price assumption Brent | Highest | 102.2 | 124.6 | 120.4 | 103.0 | ||
| Oil price assumption Brent | Consensus | 79.8 | 70.9 | 98.6 | 104.5 | 94.0 | 80.9 |
| Oil price assumption Brent | Lowest | 88.6 | 89.8 | 77.0 | 67.0 | ||
| Oil price assumption WTI | Number of analysts participating | 22 | 10 | 10 | 9 | ||
| Oil price assumption WTI | Highest | 96.5 | 120.4 | 117.4 | 100.0 | ||
| Oil price assumption WTI | Consensus | 77.3 | 68.1 | 93.9 | 100.0 | 88.7 | 76.2 |
| Oil price assumption WTI | Lowest | 85.0 | 85.0 | 73.0 | 63.0 | ||
| Henry Hub price assumption | Number of analysts participating | 23 | 11 | 11 | 10 | ||
| Henry Hub price assumption | Highest | 5.88 | 6.79 | 5.43 | 4.00 | ||
| Henry Hub price assumption | Consensus | 4.75 | 3.95 | 4.69 | 4.73 | 3.88 | 3.49 |
| Henry Hub price assumption | Lowest | 4.48 | 3.50 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
LAST UPDATE: 2022-04-28
ESTIMATES INCLUDED FROM AMONGST OTHERS:
AB BERNSTEIN, ABN AMRO - ODDO BHF, BANK OF AMERICA, BARCLAYS, BERENBERG BANK, COWEN AND COMPANY, DEUTSCHE BANK, EXANE BNP PARIBAS, GOLDMAN SACHS, HSBC, ISI EVERCORE, KEPLER CHEUVREUX, MORGAN STANLEY, PALISSY ADVISORS, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, REDBURN, SANTANDER, SCOTIABANK, SIMMONS & COMPANY INTERNATIONAL, SOCIÉTÉ GÉNÉRALE, TD SECURITIES, WELLS FARGO.
THE ANALYSTS' CONSENSUS ESTIMATES FOR SHELL PLC PROVIDED ABOVE ARE FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND ARE PROVIDED ONLY FOR THE CONVENIENCE OF SHELL'S INVESTORS. SHELL HAS ENGAGED VARA RESEARCH GMBH TO SURVEY ANALYSTS THAT COVER SHELL PLC AND TO PROVIDE US WITH ANALYSTS' CONSENSUS ESTIMATES FOR SHELL PLC. THE ANALYSTS' CONSENSUS ESTIMATES ARE NOT SHELL-PREPARED ESTIMATES, FORECASTS, PREDICTIONS OR PROJECTIONS. SHELL HAS HAD NO INVOLVEMENT IN THE PREPARATION OF THE ANALYSTS' CONSENSUS ESTIMATES OR IN ANY ANALYST'S ESTIMATE THAT MAY HAVE FORMED PART OF THE ANALYSTS' CONSENSUS ESTIMATES. SHELL DOES NOT ENDORSE OR APPROVE THE ANALYSTS' CONSENSUS ESTIMATES OR ANY UNDERLYING ANALYST'S ESTIMATE THAT MAY HAVE FORMED PART OF THE ANALYSTS' CONSENSUS ESTIMATES. SHELL IS NOT ADOPTING THE ANALYSTS' CONSENSUS ESTIMATES AND THE ANALYSTS' CONSENSUS ESTIMATES HAVE NOT BEEN REVIEWED OR REPORTED ON IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE REQUIREMENTS OF RULE 28.1(A) OF THE CITY CODE ON TAKEOVERS AND MERGERS. MOREOVER, INVESTORS ARE WARNED THAT RELIANCE ON THE ANALYSTS' CONSENSUS ESTIMATES AS PART OF THEIR INVESTMENT DECISION COULD RESULTS IN A LOSS, ESPECIALLY ISHELL PLC FAILS TO MEET THE ANALYSTS CONSENSUS ESTIMATES. FURTHERMORE, SHELL PROVIDES NO ASSURANCE WITH REGARD TO THE ACCURACY OR CORRECTNESS OF THE ANALYSTS' CONSENSUS ESTIMATES.
