| [in Mill. US Dollar] | Q4 2020 E | FY 2020 E | FY 2021 E | FY 2022 E | FY 2023 E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Integrated Gas | Number of analysts participating | 21 | 21 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| Integrated Gas | Highest | 1,662 | 4,936 | 10,373 | 9,473 | 9,950 |
| Integrated Gas | Consensus | 1,002 | 4,275 | 5,988 | 7,245 | 7,794 |
| Integrated Gas | Lowest | 773 | 4,046 | 4,170 | 5,290 | 5,494 |
| Upstream | Number of analysts participating | 21 | 21 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| Upstream | Highest | 159 | -1,947 | 4,777 | 6,414 | 8,155 |
| Upstream | Consensus | -685 | -2,790 | 2,164 | 4,148 | 4,585 |
| Upstream | Lowest | -1,487 | -3,592 | -2,110 | 822 | 1,483 |
| Oil Products (CCS basis) | Number of analysts participating | 23 | 23 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
| Oil Products (CCS basis) | Highest | 1,627 | 7,081 | 7,407 | 7,931 | 8,081 |
| Oil Products (CCS basis) | Consensus | 968 | 6,422 | 5,399 | 6,297 | 6,544 |
| Oil Products (CCS basis) | Lowest | 153 | 5,606 | 3,831 | 5,231 | 5,761 |
| Chemicals (CCS basis) | Number of analysts participating | 23 | 23 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
| Chemicals (CCS basis) | Highest | 422 | 1,003 | 1,642 | 2,006 | 2,359 |
| Chemicals (CCS basis) | Consensus | 291 | 872 | 1,118 | 1,376 | 1,826 |
| Chemicals (CCS basis) | Lowest | 107 | 687 | 606 | 525 | 1,050 |
| Operating Income | Number of analysts participating | 24 | 24 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Operating Income | Highest | 3,061 | 10,264 | 20,675 | 22,998 | 25,928 |
| Operating Income | Consensus | 1,588 | 8,793 | 14,680 | 18,728 | 20,360 |
| Operating Income | Lowest | 358 | 7,562 | 9,464 | 12,326 | 13,177 |
| Corporate | Number of analysts participating | 23 | 23 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Corporate | Highest | -740 | -3,317 | -2,362 | -1,921 | -1,551 |
| Corporate | Consensus | -925 | -3,502 | -3,325 | -3,066 | -2,818 |
| Corporate | Lowest | -1,256 | -3,833 | -4,682 | -4,208 | -3,800 |
| Non-controlling interest | Number of analysts participating | 23 | 23 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Non-controlling interest | Highest | 36 | -140 | -180 | -180 | -140 |
| Non-controlling interest | Consensus | -58 | -233 | -339 | -405 | -424 |
| Non-controlling interest | Lowest | -177 | -353 | -500 | -545 | -560 |
| Adjusted Earnings | Number of analysts participating | 25 | 25 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Adjusted Earnings | Highest | 2,070 | 6,521 | 16,546 | 19,946 | 22,441 |
| Adjusted Earnings | Consensus | 597 | 5,050 | 10,753 | 14,930 | 16,945 |
| Adjusted Earnings | Lowest | -613 | 3,838 | 5,204 | 8,392 | 9,128 |
| Weighted average number of shares (diluted) | Number of analysts participating | 25 | 25 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Weighted average number of shares (diluted) | Highest | 8,066 | 8,066 | 8,026 | 7,885 | 7,824 |
| Weighted average number of shares (diluted) | Consensus | 7,827 | 7,828 | 7,813 | 7,704 | 7,334 |
| Weighted average number of shares (diluted) | Lowest | 7,789 | 7,797 | 7,702 | 7,370 | 3,812 |
| Adjusted Earnings per share | Number of analysts participating | 25 | 25 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Adjusted Earnings per share | Highest | 0.26 | 0.83 | 2.15 | 2.71 | 4.10 |
| Adjusted Earnings per share | Consensus | 0.08 | 0.64 | 1.38 | 1.94 | 2.36 |
| Adjusted Earnings per share | Lowest | -0.08 | 0.49 | 0.67 | 1.07 | 1.17 |
| Dividend per Share | Number of analysts participating | 23 | 23 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Dividend per Share | Highest | 0.46 | 0.96 | 1.13 | 1.70 | 1.94 |
| Dividend per Share | Consensus | 0.18 | 0.68 | 0.70 | 0.75 | 0.79 |
| Dividend per Share | Lowest | 0.16 | 0.65 | 0.64 | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| Cash flow from operating activities * | Number of analysts participating | 20 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
| Cash flow from operating activities * | Highest | 9,574 | 37,391 | 44,666 | 47,782 | 55,803 |
| Cash flow from operating activities * | Consensus | 6,424 | 34,241 | 38,882 | 43,571 | 46,302 |
| Cash flow from operating activities * | Lowest | 3,150 | 30,967 | 31,633 | 37,252 | 38,658 |
| of which decrease / (increase) in working capital (WC) | Number of analysts participating | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| of which decrease / (increase) in working capital (WC) | Highest | 1,448 | 6,394 | 500 | 0 | 0 |
| of which decrease / (increase) in working capital (WC) | Consensus | -558 | 4,388 | -433 | -597 | -127 |
| of which decrease / (increase) in working capital (WC) | Lowest | -3,301 | 1,645 | -3,977 | -2,993 | -1,250 |
| Cash flow from operating activities excl. WC movements | Number of analysts participating | 20 | 20 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| Cash flow from operating activities excl. WC movements | Highest | 9,375 | 32,246 | 45,095 | 48,148 | 55,803 |
| Cash flow from operating activities excl. WC movements | Consensus | 6,939 | 29,811 | 39,596 | 44,489 | 46,178 |
| Cash flow from operating activities excl. WC movements | Lowest | 4,074 | 26,946 | 33,133 | 38,417 | 38,658 |
| Oil price assumption Brent | Number of analysts participating | 25 | 22 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Oil price assumption Brent | Highest | 45.5 | 43.4 | 58.8 | 65.0 | 65.0 |
| Oil price assumption Brent | Consensus | 44.5 | 42.4 | 51.7 | 56.3 | 57.4 |
| Oil price assumption Brent | Lowest | 40.0 | 40.6 | 46.0 | 48.0 | 50.0 |
| Oil price assumption WTI | Number of analysts participating | 22 | 21 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Oil price assumption WTI | Highest | 45.0 | 40.3 | 55.8 | 57.5 | 61.0 |
| Oil price assumption WTI | Consensus | 42.5 | 39.2 | 48.3 | 52.2 | 53.2 |
| Oil price assumption WTI | Lowest | 37.0 | 37.2 | 43.0 | 44.5 | 45.0 |
| Henry Hub price assumption | Number of analysts participating | 25 | 22 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Henry Hub price assumption | Highest | 3.00 | 2.17 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| Henry Hub price assumption | Consensus | 2.72 | 2.10 | 2.80 | 2.64 | 2.63 |
| Henry Hub price assumption | Lowest | 2.44 | 2.00 | 2.50 | 2.25 | 2.25 |
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VARA WILL EXCLUDE FROM THE ANALYSTS' CONSENSUS ESTIMATES ESTIMATES WHICH WERE PRODUCED BY ANALYSTS WHO ARE ANONYMOUS, HAVE NEVER PROVIDED A SUPPORTING RESEARCH REPORT AND / OR HAVE NOT GIVEN THEIR PERMISSION FOR THEIR ESTIMATES TO BE INCLUDED IN THE ANALYSTS' CONSENSUS ESTIMATES.
LAST UPDATE: 2021-02-03
ESTIMATES OF THE FOLLOWING INSTITUTIONS WERE INCLUDED IN THE ABOVE FIGURES (DATES OF THE ESTIMATES ARE PROVIDED IN BRACKETS)
AB BERNSTEIN (2021-01-26), BANK OF AMERICA (2021-01-22), BARCLAYS (2021-01-13), BERENBERG BANK (2021-01-26), CITIGROUP (2021-01-19), COWEN AND COMPANY (2021-01-20), CREDIT SUISSE (2021-01-14), EXANE BNP PARIBAS (2021-01-18), GOLDMAN SACHS (2021-01-14), HSBC (2021-01-14), J.P. MORGAN CAZENOVE (2021-01-15), JEFFERIES (2021-01-25), KEPLER CHEUVREUX (2021-01-27), MIZUHO SECURITIES (2021-01-13), MORGAN STANLEY (2021-01-26), ODDO BHF (2021-01-19), PALISSY ADVISORS (2021-01-18), RBC CAPITAL MARKETS (2021-01-18), REDBURN (2021-01-19), SANTANDER (2021-01-20), SCOTIABANK (2021-01-15), SOCIÉTÉ GÉNÉRALE (2021-01-14), TUDOR, PICKERING, HOLT & CO. (2021-01-21), UBS (2021-01-21), WELLS FARGO (2021-01-26).
THE ANALYSTS' CONSENSUS ESTIMATES FOR ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC PROVIDED ABOVE ARE FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND ARE PROVIDED ONLY FOR THE CONVENIENCE OF SHELL'S INVESTORS. SHELL HAS ENGAGED VARA RESEARCH GMBH TO SURVEY ANALYSTS THAT COVER ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC AND TO PROVIDE US WITH ANALYSTS' CONSENSUS ESTIMATES FOR ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC. THE ANALYSTS' CONSENSUS ESTIMATES ARE NOT SHELL-PREPARED ESTIMATES, FORECASTS, PREDICTIONS OR PROJECTIONS. SHELL HAS HAD NO INVOLVEMENT IN THE PREPARATION OF THE ANALYSTS' CONSENSUS ESTIMATES OR IN ANY ANALYST'S ESTIMATE THAT MAY HAVE FORMED PART OF THE ANALYSTS' CONSENSUS ESTIMATES. SHELL DOES NOT ENDORSE OR APPROVE THE ANALYSTS' CONSENSUS ESTIMATES OR ANY UNDERLYING ANALYST'S ESTIMATE THAT MAY HAVE FORMED PART OF THE ANALYSTS' CONSENSUS ESTIMATES. SHELL IS NOT ADOPTING THE ANALYSTS' CONSENSUS ESTIMATES AND THE ANALYSTS' CONSENSUS ESTIMATES HAVE NOT BEEN REVIEWED OR REPORTED ON IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE REQUIREMENTS OF RULE 28.1(A) OF THE CITY CODE ON TAKEOVERS AND MERGERS. MOREOVER, INVESTORS ARE WARNED THAT RELIANCE ON THE ANALYSTS' CONSENSUS ESTIMATES AS PART OF THEIR INVESTMENT DECISION COULD RESULTS IN A LOSS, ESPECIALLY IF ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC FAILS TO MEET THE ANALYSTS CONSENSUS ESTIMATES. FURTHERMORE, SHELL PROVIDES NO ASSURANCE WITH REGARD TO THE ACCURACY OR CORRECTNESS OF THE ANALYSTS' CONSENSUS ESTIMATES.
