| KPI | [EUR m] | Q1-Q2 2022 | Q3-Q4 2022 | FY 2022 | H1 2023 E | H2 2023 E | FY 2023 E | FY 2024 E | FY 2025 E | FY 2026 E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues (excluding precious metals) | Number of Estimates | 9 | 9 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 9 | |||
| Revenues (excluding precious metals) | Highest | 2,252.0 | 2,289.4 | 4,451.3 | 5,172.0 | 6,657.0 | 7,143.6 | |||
| Revenues (excluding precious metals) | Consensus | 2,062.0 | 2,093.0 | 4,155.0 | 2,105.0 | 2,106.1 | 4,215.4 | 4,527.6 | 4,979.9 | 5,605.1 |
| Revenues (excluding precious metals) | Median | 2,090.3 | 2,108.7 | 4,224.0 | 4,515.8 | 4,924.4 | 5,634.7 | |||
| Revenues (excluding precious metals) | Lowest | 1,938.4 | 1,983.2 | 4,034.0 | 4,088.0 | 4,252.0 | 4,363.0 | |||
| Adjusted EBITDA (including associates) | Number of Estimates | 8 | 8 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 9 | |||
| Adjusted EBITDA (including associates) | Highest | 569.7 | 533.2 | 1,119.0 | 1,191.1 | 1,386.0 | 1,516.7 | |||
| Adjusted EBITDA (including associates) | Consensus | 601.0 | 550.0 | 1,151.0 | 527.4 | 508.6 | 1,041.8 | 1,063.8 | 1,115.1 | 1,244.8 |
| Adjusted EBITDA (including associates) | Median | 525.9 | 504.1 | 1,036.4 | 1,068.8 | 1,132.9 | 1,282.4 | |||
| Adjusted EBITDA (including associates) | Lowest | 499.8 | 494.9 | 1,002.1 | 953.0 | 872.0 | 990.0 | |||
| Adjusted EBIT (including associates) | Number of Estimates | 9 | 9 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 9 | |||
| Adjusted EBIT (including associates) | Highest | 405.5 | 372.7 | 788.0 | 848.0 | 1,055.0 | 1,063.0 | |||
| Adjusted EBIT (including associates) | Consensus | 461.0 | 404.0 | 865.0 | 377.9 | 352.8 | 734.9 | 723.5 | 737.6 | 823.7 |
| Adjusted EBIT (including associates) | Median | 379.0 | 352.8 | 728.0 | 716.7 | 739.9 | 830.8 | |||
| Adjusted EBIT (including associates) | Lowest | 345.0 | 332.7 | 686.6 | 630.0 | 525.0 | 608.0 | |||
| EBIT reported (including associates, including non-recurring elements) | Number of Estimates | 7 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 7 | |||
| EBIT reported (including associates, including non-recurring elements) | Highest | 398.8 | 372.7 | 768.8 | 796.9 | 871.4 | 1,032.0 | |||
| EBIT reported (including associates, including non-recurring elements) | Consensus | 441.0 | 391.0 | 832.0 | 371.5 | 347.2 | 718.6 | 721.3 | 739.5 | 803.3 |
| EBIT reported (including associates, including non-recurring elements) | Median | 365.6 | 352.1 | 721.2 | 728.4 | 757.6 | 820.1 | |||
| EBIT reported (including associates, including non-recurring elements) | Lowest | 343.1 | 307.7 | 673.2 | 592.4 | 558.8 | 573.2 | |||
| Adjusted net profit (Group share) | Number of Estimates | 7 | 7 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 7 | |||
| Adjusted net profit (Group share) | Highest | 282.1 | 242.8 | 510.0 | 538.0 | 691.0 | 693.1 | |||
| Adjusted net profit (Group share) | Consensus | 321.0 | 272.0 | 593.0 | 246.8 | 221.1 | 473.9 | 461.8 | 465.8 | 515.7 |
| Adjusted net profit (Group share) | Median | 236.8 | 222.9 | 468.5 | 466.0 | 465.3 | 513.4 | |||
| Adjusted net profit (Group share) | Lowest | 221.4 | 187.7 | 447.8 | 378.0 | 279.0 | 359.0 | |||
| Net profit reported (Group share) | Number of Estimates | 6 | 6 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 8 | |||
| Net profit reported (Group share) | Highest | 292.1 | 242.6 | 521.8 | 538.0 | 691.0 | 699.0 | |||
| Net profit reported (Group share) | Consensus | 309.0 | 261.0 | 570.0 | 249.0 | 220.7 | 466.5 | 448.9 | 453.8 | 481.2 |
| Net profit reported (Group share) | Median | 237.3 | 222.0 | 461.4 | 468.5 | 465.3 | 496.2 | |||
| Net profit reported (Group share) | Lowest | 223.8 | 188.7 | 415.5 | 333.8 | 254.9 | 274.5 | |||
| Capital expenditure (Capex) | Number of Estimates | 3 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 9 | |||
| Capital expenditure (Capex) | Highest | 408.9 | 438.0 | 973.0 | 1,664.0 | 1,263.0 | 1,315.0 | |||
| Capital expenditure (Capex) | Consensus | 190.0 | 280.0 | 470.0 | 366.7 | 397.9 | 844.7 | 1,090.7 | 1,063.0 | 1,073.2 |
| Capital expenditure (Capex) | Median | 351.0 | 413.4 | 844.7 | 1,034.0 | 1,071.1 | 1,154.0 | |||
| Capital expenditure (Capex) | Lowest | 340.2 | 342.3 | 682.6 | 782.9 | 820.3 | 764.4 | |||
| Net cashflow before financing (free cashflow) | Number of Estimates | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 8 | |||
| Net cashflow before financing (free cashflow) | Highest | 472.8 | -359.4 | 128.0 | 155.3 | -27.5 | 101.9 | |||
| Net cashflow before financing (free cashflow) | Consensus | 230.0 | -77.0 | 153.0 | 472.8 | -359.4 | -208.0 | -406.7 | -409.6 | -295.1 |
| Net cashflow before financing (free cashflow) | Median | 472.8 | -359.4 | -219.0 | -366.0 | -453.2 | -332.1 | |||
| Net cashflow before financing (free cashflow) | Lowest | 472.8 | -359.4 | -882.4 | -894.0 | -684.0 | -563.5 | |||
| Net financial debt (+)/cash (-) | Number of Estimates | 2 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 7 | |||
| Net financial debt (+)/cash (-) | Highest | 949.5 | 1,429.2 | 2,182.3 | 2,980.0 | 4,181.0 | 4,054.9 | |||
| Net financial debt (+)/cash (-) | Consensus | 955.0 | 1,104.0 | 1,104.0 | 883.0 | 1,250.3 | 1,518.3 | 2,120.9 | 2,742.8 | 3,405.4 |
| Net financial debt (+)/cash (-) | Median | 883.0 | 1,250.3 | 1,476.6 | 2,133.0 | 2,782.0 | 3,598.0 | |||
| Net financial debt (+)/cash (-) | Lowest | 816.5 | 1,071.3 | 1,072.6 | 1,347.6 | 1,797.6 | 2,176.9 | |||
| Capital employed (average) | Number of Estimates | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5 | |||
| Capital employed (average) | Highest | 4,484.2 | 5,733.7 | 5,715.9 | 6,643.2 | 7,526.0 | 8,465.5 | |||
| Capital employed (average) | Consensus | 4,426.0 | 4,596.0 | 4,511.0 | 4,484.2 | 5,733.7 | 5,412.9 | 6,104.9 | 6,770.9 | 7,407.0 |
| Capital employed (average) | Median | 4,484.2 | 5,733.7 | 5,369.0 | 6,090.0 | 6,715.6 | 7,253.7 | |||
| Capital employed (average) | Lowest | 4,484.2 | 5,733.7 | 5,101.9 | 5,437.7 | 5,737.5 | 6,001.3 | |||
| Adjusted EPS (basic) | Number of Estimates | 5 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 8 | |||
| Adjusted EPS (basic) | Highest | 1.17 | 1.00 | 2.13 | 2.24 | 2.87 | 2.96 | |||
| Adjusted EPS (basic) | Consensus | 1.34 | 1.13 | 2.47 | 1.01 | 0.94 | 1.97 | 1.93 | 1.94 | 2.25 |
| Adjusted EPS (basic) | Median | 0.98 | 0.93 | 1.96 | 1.94 | 1.93 | 2.16 | |||
| Adjusted EPS (basic) | Lowest | 0.92 | 0.87 | 1.85 | 1.57 | 1.16 | 1.50 | |||
| EPS reported (basic) | Number of Estimates | 5 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 9 | |||
| EPS reported (basic) | Highest | 1.21 | 0.98 | 2.17 | 2.24 | 2.87 | 2.91 | |||
| EPS reported (basic) | Consensus | 1.28 | 1.09 | 2.37 | 1.00 | 0.94 | 1.94 | 1.86 | 1.88 | 2.10 |
| EPS reported (basic) | Median | 0.98 | 0.95 | 1.90 | 1.94 | 1.93 | 2.07 | |||
| EPS reported (basic) | Lowest | 0.90 | 0.89 | 1.73 | 1.39 | 1.06 | 1.15 | |||
| Gross Dividend | Number of Estimates | 2 | 2 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 8 | |||
| Gross Dividend | Highest | 0.55 | 0.56 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |||
| Gross Dividend | Consensus | 0.55 | 0.25 | 0.80 | 0.40 | 0.41 | 0.85 | 0.88 | 0.90 | 0.96 |
| Gross Dividend | Median | 0.40 | 0.41 | 0.83 | 0.88 | 0.91 | 0.96 | |||
| Gross Dividend | Lowest | 0.26 | 0.25 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.87 |
This document has been issued by Vara Research GmbH for information purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment advice. It is based on estimates and forecasts of various analysts regarding revenues, earnings and business developments of the relevant company. The company did not participate in the compilation of the estimates and it does not endorse them. Such estimates and forecasts cannot be independently verified by reason of the subjective character. Vara Research GmbH gives no guarantee, representation or warranty and is not responsible or liable as to its accuracy and completeness.
