| KPI | [EUR m] | Q3 2024/25 | FY 2024/25 | Q3 2025/26 E | FY 2025/26 E | FY 2026/27 E | FY 2027/28 E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Sales | Number of Estimates | 5 | 8 | 8 | 8 | ||
| Net Sales | Highest | 1,032.5 | 4,753.6 | 4,881.9 | 5,113.8 | ||
| Net Sales | Consensus (Mean) | 1,008.1 | 4,575.3 | 1,026.2 | 4,674.2 | 4,806.8 | 4,951.9 |
| Net Sales | Median | 1,025.2 | 4,650.9 | 4,793.4 | 4,919.2 | ||
| Net Sales | Lowest | 1,023.3 | 4,643.2 | 4,727.2 | 4,823.3 | ||
| DACHNL, Net Sales | Number of Estimates | 5 | 8 | 8 | 8 | ||
| DACHNL, Net Sales | Highest | 490.3 | 2,189.7 | 2,250.2 | 2,351.2 | ||
| DACHNL, Net Sales | Consensus (Mean) | 480.2 | 2,120.5 | 486.7 | 2,153.7 | 2,199.7 | 2,255.5 |
| DACHNL, Net Sales | Median | 486.6 | 2,143.5 | 2,187.8 | 2,237.0 | ||
| DACHNL, Net Sales | Lowest | 484.3 | 2,133.9 | 2,159.2 | 2,183.6 | ||
| France, Net Sales | Number of Estimates | 5 | 8 | 8 | 8 | ||
| France, Net Sales | Highest | 174.5 | 852.1 | 860.7 | 875.2 | ||
| France, Net Sales | Consensus (Mean) | 172.8 | 840.4 | 171.6 | 839.2 | 844.2 | 855.8 |
| France, Net Sales | Median | 170.7 | 838.5 | 844.3 | 854.8 | ||
| France, Net Sales | Lowest | 169.1 | 829.9 | 827.9 | 826.8 | ||
| Southern Europe, Net Sales | Number of Estimates | 5 | 8 | 8 | 8 | ||
| Southern Europe, Net Sales | Highest | 152.6 | 715.2 | 736.2 | 761.0 | ||
| Southern Europe, Net Sales | Consensus (Mean) | 148.3 | 684.7 | 150.3 | 696.0 | 714.0 | 733.3 |
| Southern Europe, Net Sales | Median | 149.9 | 694.3 | 714.8 | 734.1 | ||
| Southern Europe, Net Sales | Lowest | 148.4 | 684.0 | 689.3 | 693.7 | ||
| Central and Eastern Europe, Net Sales | Number of Estimates | 5 | 8 | 8 | 8 | ||
| Central and Eastern Europe, Net Sales | Highest | 172.5 | 792.7 | 851.0 | 909.4 | ||
| Central and Eastern Europe, Net Sales | Consensus (Mean) | 159.1 | 719.0 | 169.6 | 774.8 | 829.9 | 879.8 |
| Central and Eastern Europe, Net Sales | Median | 170.2 | 771.0 | 829.2 | 879.6 | ||
| Central and Eastern Europe, Net Sales | Lowest | 166.9 | 765.7 | 807.7 | 850.0 | ||
| Parfumdreams/Niche Beauty, Net Sales | Number of Estimates | 5 | 8 | 8 | 8 | ||
| Parfumdreams/Niche Beauty, Net Sales | Highest | 50.4 | 236.3 | 248.1 | 267.2 | ||
| Parfumdreams/Niche Beauty, Net Sales | Consensus (Mean) | 48.0 | 210.3 | 48.2 | 210.5 | 218.9 | 227.3 |
| Parfumdreams/Niche Beauty, Net Sales | Median | 48.0 | 209.5 | 215.7 | 222.8 | ||
| Parfumdreams/Niche Beauty, Net Sales | Lowest | 46.6 | 176.5 | 190.7 | 202.1 | ||
| Reconciliation to Douglas Group, Net Sales | Number of Estimates | 5 | 8 | 8 | 8 | ||
| Reconciliation to Douglas Group, Net Sales | Highest | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | ||
| Reconciliation to Douglas Group, Net Sales | Consensus (Mean) | -0.2 | 0.4 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Reconciliation to Douglas Group, Net Sales | Median | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Reconciliation to Douglas Group, Net Sales | Lowest | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 | ||
| Cost of raw materials, consumables and supplies and merchandise | Number of Estimates | 5 | 8 | 8 | 8 | ||
| Cost of raw materials, consumables and supplies and merchandise | Highest | -563.4 | -2,610.3 | -2,670.3 | -2,730.0 | ||
| Cost of raw materials, consumables and supplies and merchandise | Consensus (Mean) | -551.0 | -2,539.3 | -565.4 | -2,619.1 | -2,697.9 | -2,779.3 |
| Cost of raw materials, consumables and supplies and merchandise | Median | -564.7 | -2,616.1 | -2,691.7 | -2,769.6 | ||
| Cost of raw materials, consumables and supplies and merchandise | Lowest | -568.5 | -2,640.0 | -2,734.1 | -2,863.6 | ||
| Gross profit | Number of Estimates | 5 | 8 | 8 | 8 | ||
| Gross profit | Highest | 464.0 | 2,132.0 | 2,193.6 | 2,256.6 | ||
| Gross profit | Consensus (Mean) | 457.1 | 2,036.1 | 460.9 | 2,055.1 | 2,108.9 | 2,172.6 |
| Gross profit | Median | 460.5 | 2,037.9 | 2,108.2 | 2,164.3 | ||
| Gross profit | Lowest | 459.1 | 2,028.1 | 2,031.9 | 2,086.0 | ||
| Gross profit margin | Number of Estimates | 5 | 8 | 8 | 8 | ||
| Gross profit margin | Highest | 44.9 | 44.9 | 44.9 | 44.9 | ||
| Gross profit margin | Consensus (Mean) | 45.3 | 44.5 | 44.9 | 44.0 | 43.9 | 43.9 |
| Gross profit margin | Median | 44.9 | 43.8 | 43.9 | 44.0 | ||
| Gross profit margin | Lowest | 44.8 | 43.7 | 43.0 | 43.1 | ||
| Net operating expenses | Number of Estimates | 5 | 8 | 8 | 8 | ||
| Net operating expenses | Highest | -303.4 | -1,299.8 | -1,304.7 | -1,341.2 | ||
| Net operating expenses | Consensus (Mean) | -302.5 | -1,279.5 | -308.6 | -1,322.6 | -1,354.9 | -1,394.3 |
| Net operating expenses | Median | -308.7 | -1,308.9 | -1,346.7 | -1,387.9 | ||
| Net operating expenses | Lowest | -316.1 | -1,407.6 | -1,451.6 | -1,495.9 | ||
| Reported EBITDA | Number of Estimates | 5 | 8 | 8 | 8 | ||
| Reported EBITDA | Highest | 155.6 | 768.4 | 795.8 | 822.1 | ||
| Reported EBITDA | Consensus (Mean) | 154.6 | 756.5 | 152.3 | 732.5 | 754.0 | 778.3 |
| Reported EBITDA | Median | 154.0 | 726.4 | 748.6 | 771.3 | ||
| Reported EBITDA | Lowest | 144.4 | 716.6 | 727.2 | 742.0 | ||
| Adjustments on EBITDA | Number of Estimates | 5 | 8 | 8 | 8 | ||
| Adjustments on EBITDA | Highest | 11.7 | 20.5 | 11.0 | 11.0 | ||
| Adjustments on EBITDA | Consensus (Mean) | 3.6 | 11.9 | 4.4 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 5.6 |
| Adjustments on EBITDA | Median | 3.0 | 11.8 | 6.8 | 5.5 | ||
| Adjustments on EBITDA | Lowest | 1.5 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA | Number of Estimates | 5 | 8 | 8 | 8 | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA | Highest | 158.1 | 777.3 | 805.8 | 832.1 | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA | Consensus (Mean) | 158.2 | 768.4 | 156.7 | 745.6 | 761.2 | 783.9 |
| Adjusted EBITDA | Median | 157.6 | 741.5 | 755.3 | 776.8 | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA | Lowest | 153.6 | 734.4 | 733.2 | 752.0 | ||
| DACHNL, Adjusted EBITDA | Number of Estimates | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||
| DACHNL, Adjusted EBITDA | Highest | 95.0 | 425.7 | 437.5 | 451.6 | ||
| DACHNL, Adjusted EBITDA | Consensus (Mean) | 94.9 | 423.3 | 94.4 | 415.8 | 423.8 | 437.2 |
| DACHNL, Adjusted EBITDA | Median | 94.4 | 419.6 | 430.0 | 442.0 | ||
| DACHNL, Adjusted EBITDA | Lowest | 93.8 | 406.3 | 406.1 | 419.8 | ||
| France, Adjusted EBITDA | Number of Estimates | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||
| France, Adjusted EBITDA | Highest | 28.0 | 160.9 | 163.5 | 166.6 | ||
| France, Adjusted EBITDA | Consensus (Mean) | 29.2 | 163.1 | 27.0 | 158.2 | 159.1 | 161.6 |
| France, Adjusted EBITDA | Median | 27.0 | 158.9 | 161.3 | 161.4 | ||
| France, Adjusted EBITDA | Lowest | 26.0 | 155.0 | 152.3 | 156.5 | ||
| Southern Europe, Adjusted EBITDA | Number of Estimates | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||
| Southern Europe, Adjusted EBITDA | Highest | 30.0 | 146.8 | 151.2 | 155.1 | ||
| Southern Europe, Adjusted EBITDA | Consensus (Mean) | 28.8 | 144.2 | 29.0 | 140.3 | 142.7 | 147.3 |
| Southern Europe, Adjusted EBITDA | Median | 29.0 | 138.3 | 141.1 | 148.0 | ||
| Southern Europe, Adjusted EBITDA | Lowest | 28.1 | 134.8 | 135.2 | 139.9 | ||
| Central and Eastern Europe, Adjusted EBITDA | Number of Estimates | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||
| Central and Eastern Europe, Adjusted EBITDA | Highest | 37.0 | 184.2 | 198.4 | 212.0 | ||
| Central and Eastern Europe, Adjusted EBITDA | Consensus (Mean) | 34.6 | 167.9 | 35.5 | 173.0 | 182.8 | 196.3 |
| Central and Eastern Europe, Adjusted EBITDA | Median | 35.5 | 173.4 | 180.8 | 195.0 | ||
| Central and Eastern Europe, Adjusted EBITDA | Lowest | 34.0 | 158.5 | 166.5 | 178.1 | ||
| Parfumdreams/Niche Beauty, Adjusted EBITDA | Number of Estimates | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||
| Parfumdreams/Niche Beauty, Adjusted EBITDA | Highest | 0.8 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 6.9 | ||
| Parfumdreams/Niche Beauty, Adjusted EBITDA | Consensus (Mean) | 0.7 | 4.4 | -0.3 | 0.4 | -4.5 | -8.2 |
| Parfumdreams/Niche Beauty, Adjusted EBITDA | Median | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 2.0 | ||
| Parfumdreams/Niche Beauty, Adjusted EBITDA | Lowest | -1.4 | -6.1 | -32.1 | -53.3 | ||
| Reconciliation to Douglas Group, Adjusted EBITDA | Number of Estimates | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||
| Reconciliation to Douglas Group, Adjusted EBITDA | Highest | -30.0 | -130.7 | -140.8 | -145.7 | ||
| Reconciliation to Douglas Group, Adjusted EBITDA | Consensus (Mean) | -30.0 | -134.2 | -30.0 | -141.5 | -147.5 | -152.3 |
| Reconciliation to Douglas Group, Adjusted EBITDA | Median | -30.0 | -141.0 | -145.2 | -149.6 | ||
| Reconciliation to Douglas Group, Adjusted EBITDA | Lowest | -30.0 | -155.0 | -160.0 | -165.0 | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | Number of Estimates | 5 | 8 | 8 | 8 | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | Highest | 15.4 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | Consensus (Mean) | 15.7 | 16.8 | 15.3 | 16.0 | 15.8 | 15.8 |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | Median | 15.3 | 16.0 | 15.8 | 15.8 | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | Lowest | 15.0 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.1 | ||
| Capex | Number of Estimates | - | 8 | 8 | 8 | ||
| Capex | Highest | - | -148.6 | -144.8 | -146.9 | ||
| Capex | Consensus (Mean) | -43.4 | -171.1 | - | -149.8 | -152.0 | -158.1 |
| Capex | Median | - | -150.0 | -150.7 | -154.6 | ||
| Capex | Lowest | - | -151.0 | -165.5 | -183.4 | ||
| Avg. NWC (incl. Supply Chain Financing) | Number of Estimates | - | 4 | 4 | 4 | ||
| Avg. NWC (incl. Supply Chain Financing) | Highest | - | 288.9 | 341.4 | 375.4 | ||
| Avg. NWC (incl. Supply Chain Financing) | Consensus (Mean) | 227.9 | 200.2 | - | 203.8 | 216.7 | 225.7 |
| Avg. NWC (incl. Supply Chain Financing) | Median | - | 188.2 | 188.2 | 184.6 | ||
| Avg. NWC (incl. Supply Chain Financing) | Lowest | - | 149.9 | 149.2 | 158.3 | ||
| Avg. NWC (incl. Supply Chain Financing) as % of Sales | Number of Estimates | - | 3 | 3 | 3 | ||
| Avg. NWC (incl. Supply Chain Financing) as % of Sales | Highest | - | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | ||
| Avg. NWC (incl. Supply Chain Financing) as % of Sales | Consensus (Mean) | 5.0 | 4.4 | - | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.6 |
| Avg. NWC (incl. Supply Chain Financing) as % of Sales | Median | - | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.4 | ||
| Avg. NWC (incl. Supply Chain Financing) as % of Sales | Lowest | - | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.3 | ||
| Free Cash Flow | Number of Estimates | - | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||
| Free Cash Flow | Highest | - | 600.5 | 560.4 | 581.3 | ||
| Free Cash Flow | Consensus (Mean) | 104.8 | 461.0 | - | 524.0 | 527.6 | 544.8 |
| Free Cash Flow | Median | - | 539.6 | 529.7 | 542.1 | ||
| Free Cash Flow | Lowest | - | 396.7 | 473.9 | 505.2 | ||
| Net leverage ratio | Number of Estimates | - | 7 | 7 | 7 | ||
| Net leverage ratio | Highest | - | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.8 | ||
| Net leverage ratio | Consensus (Mean) | 2.7 | 2.9 | - | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.6 |
| Net leverage ratio | Median | - | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.5 | ||
| Net leverage ratio | Lowest | - | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.4 | ||
| Number of new store openings (net openings) | Number of Estimates | - | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||
| Number of new store openings (net openings) | Highest | - | 75 | 50 | 50 | ||
| Number of new store openings (net openings) | Consensus (Mean) | 23 | 75 | - | 47 | 33 | 31 |
| Number of new store openings (net openings) | Median | - | 46 | 28 | 25 | ||
| Number of new store openings (net openings) | Lowest | - | 30 | 20 | 20 |
This document has been issued by Vara Research GmbH for information purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment advice. It is based on estimates and forecasts of various analysts regarding revenues, earnings and business developments of the relevant company. The company did not participate in the compilation of the estimates and it does not endorse them. Such estimates and forecasts cannot be independently verified by reason of the subjective character. Vara Research GmbH gives no guarantee, representation or warranty and is not responsible or liable as to its accuracy and completeness.
