| KPI | [EUR m] | Q4 2024/25 | FY 2024/25 | Q4 2025/26 E | FY 2025/26 E | FY 2026/27 E | FY 2027/28 E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Sales | Number of Estimates | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | ||
| Net Sales | Highest | 989.1 | 4,600.3 | 4,829.4 | 5,062.6 | ||
| Net Sales | Consensus (Mean) | 981.9 | 4,575.3 | 975.1 | 4,586.3 | 4,670.3 | 4,792.6 |
| Net Sales | Median | 972.8 | 4,584.0 | 4,656.7 | 4,815.5 | ||
| Net Sales | Lowest | 967.4 | 4,578.6 | 4,505.2 | 4,496.9 | ||
| DACHNL, Net Sales | Number of Estimates | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | ||
| DACHNL, Net Sales | Highest | 483.4 | 2,133.2 | 2,223.7 | 2,327.7 | ||
| DACHNL, Net Sales | Consensus (Mean) | 467.4 | 2,120.5 | 462.4 | 2,112.2 | 2,138.8 | 2,180.2 |
| DACHNL, Net Sales | Median | 459.6 | 2,109.4 | 2,133.1 | 2,184.7 | ||
| DACHNL, Net Sales | Lowest | 450.0 | 2,099.8 | 2,067.8 | 2,047.1 | ||
| France, Net Sales | Number of Estimates | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | ||
| France, Net Sales | Highest | 164.6 | 843.5 | 852.0 | 866.2 | ||
| France, Net Sales | Consensus (Mean) | 161.1 | 840.4 | 153.3 | 832.2 | 831.0 | 837.4 |
| France, Net Sales | Median | 154.8 | 833.7 | 833.7 | 847.1 | ||
| France, Net Sales | Lowest | 142.5 | 821.4 | 808.6 | 803.1 | ||
| Southern Europe, Net Sales | Number of Estimates | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | ||
| Southern Europe, Net Sales | Highest | 155.3 | 688.4 | 719.8 | 753.4 | ||
| Southern Europe, Net Sales | Consensus (Mean) | 145.3 | 684.7 | 148.9 | 682.0 | 692.9 | 708.7 |
| Southern Europe, Net Sales | Median | 148.9 | 682.0 | 695.6 | 715.2 | ||
| Southern Europe, Net Sales | Lowest | 139.9 | 673.0 | 658.5 | 651.9 | ||
| Central and Eastern Europe, Net Sales | Number of Estimates | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | ||
| Central and Eastern Europe, Net Sales | Highest | 180.9 | 776.3 | 824.9 | 889.7 | ||
| Central and Eastern Europe, Net Sales | Consensus (Mean) | 158.0 | 719.0 | 165.2 | 760.6 | 799.8 | 848.5 |
| Central and Eastern Europe, Net Sales | Median | 166.2 | 761.6 | 803.1 | 856.5 | ||
| Central and Eastern Europe, Net Sales | Lowest | 148.8 | 744.2 | 770.2 | 802.3 | ||
| Parfumdreams/Niche Beauty, Net Sales | Number of Estimates | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | ||
| Parfumdreams/Niche Beauty, Net Sales | Highest | 66.7 | 220.8 | 242.9 | 267.2 | ||
| Parfumdreams/Niche Beauty, Net Sales | Consensus (Mean) | 49.6 | 210.3 | 46.6 | 200.7 | 206.7 | 216.8 |
| Parfumdreams/Niche Beauty, Net Sales | Median | 49.2 | 203.3 | 210.4 | 218.5 | ||
| Parfumdreams/Niche Beauty, Net Sales | Lowest | -1.2 | 152.9 | 160.5 | 168.6 | ||
| Reconciliation to Douglas Group, Net Sales | Number of Estimates | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | ||
| Reconciliation to Douglas Group, Net Sales | Highest | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | ||
| Reconciliation to Douglas Group, Net Sales | Consensus (Mean) | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Reconciliation to Douglas Group, Net Sales | Median | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | ||
| Reconciliation to Douglas Group, Net Sales | Lowest | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA | Number of Estimates | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA | Highest | 120.4 | 697.7 | 741.5 | 779.2 | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA | Consensus (Mean) | 134.3 | 768.4 | 110.5 | 687.8 | 704.6 | 727.5 |
| Adjusted EBITDA | Median | 110.7 | 688.0 | 705.5 | 724.8 | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA | Lowest | 100.2 | 677.5 | 650.0 | 645.0 | ||
| DACHNL, Adjusted EBITDA | Number of Estimates | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||
| DACHNL, Adjusted EBITDA | Highest | 124.0 | 414.6 | 420.2 | 436.6 | ||
| DACHNL, Adjusted EBITDA | Consensus (Mean) | 95.4 | 423.3 | 96.1 | 386.7 | 394.3 | 407.1 |
| DACHNL, Adjusted EBITDA | Median | 92.2 | 382.8 | 390.2 | 397.6 | ||
| DACHNL, Adjusted EBITDA | Lowest | 83.2 | 373.8 | 383.1 | 396.2 | ||
| France, Adjusted EBITDA | Number of Estimates | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||
| France, Adjusted EBITDA | Highest | 25.8 | 158.1 | 156.9 | 158.8 | ||
| France, Adjusted EBITDA | Consensus (Mean) | 23.2 | 163.1 | 17.6 | 149.9 | 150.1 | 152.0 |
| France, Adjusted EBITDA | Median | 15.0 | 147.3 | 148.2 | 150.7 | ||
| France, Adjusted EBITDA | Lowest | 13.3 | 145.6 | 147.2 | 146.2 | ||
| Southern Europe, Adjusted EBITDA | Number of Estimates | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||
| Southern Europe, Adjusted EBITDA | Highest | 35.2 | 142.4 | 142.7 | 145.7 | ||
| Southern Europe, Adjusted EBITDA | Consensus (Mean) | 23.3 | 144.2 | 24.3 | 131.5 | 136.2 | 140.1 |
| Southern Europe, Adjusted EBITDA | Median | 23.8 | 131.0 | 134.3 | 137.4 | ||
| Southern Europe, Adjusted EBITDA | Lowest | 16.7 | 123.9 | 130.5 | 135.1 | ||
| Central and Eastern Europe, Adjusted EBITDA | Number of Estimates | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||
| Central and Eastern Europe, Adjusted EBITDA | Highest | 37.6 | 177.0 | 189.7 | 205.9 | ||
| Central and Eastern Europe, Adjusted EBITDA | Consensus (Mean) | 30.8 | 167.9 | 26.4 | 165.8 | 177.9 | 191.2 |
| Central and Eastern Europe, Adjusted EBITDA | Median | 31.9 | 171.3 | 182.7 | 195.6 | ||
| Central and Eastern Europe, Adjusted EBITDA | Lowest | 2.0 | 141.4 | 150.2 | 160.7 | ||
| Parfumdreams/Niche Beauty, Adjusted EBITDA | Number of Estimates | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||
| Parfumdreams/Niche Beauty, Adjusted EBITDA | Highest | 5.7 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.7 | ||
| Parfumdreams/Niche Beauty, Adjusted EBITDA | Consensus (Mean) | -1.0 | 4.4 | -9.2 | -8.8 | -8.2 | -9.5 |
| Parfumdreams/Niche Beauty, Adjusted EBITDA | Median | -1.1 | -0.7 | 1.1 | 1.2 | ||
| Parfumdreams/Niche Beauty, Adjusted EBITDA | Lowest | -49.8 | -49.4 | -49.9 | -57.1 | ||
| Reconciliation to Douglas Group, Adjusted EBITDA | Number of Estimates | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||
| Reconciliation to Douglas Group, Adjusted EBITDA | Highest | -32.5 | -125.0 | -125.0 | -125.0 | ||
| Reconciliation to Douglas Group, Adjusted EBITDA | Consensus (Mean) | -37.4 | -134.6 | -46.8 | -139.3 | -141.5 | -144.2 |
| Reconciliation to Douglas Group, Adjusted EBITDA | Median | -45.0 | -137.6 | -140.7 | -143.8 | ||
| Reconciliation to Douglas Group, Adjusted EBITDA | Lowest | -62.5 | -155.0 | -160.0 | -165.0 | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | Number of Estimates | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | Highest | 12.2 | 15.2 | 15.5 | 15.6 | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | Consensus (Mean) | 13.7 | 16.8 | 11.3 | 15.0 | 15.1 | 15.2 |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | Median | 11.4 | 15.0 | 15.1 | 15.2 | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | Lowest | 10.4 | 14.8 | 14.4 | 14.3 | ||
| DACHNL, Adjusted EBITDA margin | Number of Estimates | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||
| DACHNL, Adjusted EBITDA margin | Highest | 27.0 | 19.7 | 19.9 | 20.4 | ||
| DACHNL, Adjusted EBITDA margin | Consensus (Mean) | 20.4 | 20.0 | 20.8 | 18.3 | 18.4 | 18.6 |
| DACHNL, Adjusted EBITDA margin | Median | 19.2 | 18.0 | 18.1 | 18.2 | ||
| DACHNL, Adjusted EBITDA margin | Lowest | 18.5 | 17.8 | 17.9 | 17.9 | ||
| France, Adjusted EBITDA margin | Number of Estimates | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||
| France, Adjusted EBITDA margin | Highest | 17.9 | 19.2 | 19.4 | 19.7 | ||
| France, Adjusted EBITDA margin | Consensus (Mean) | 14.4 | 19.4 | 11.6 | 18.0 | 18.1 | 18.2 |
| France, Adjusted EBITDA margin | Median | 10.1 | 17.8 | 18.0 | 18.1 | ||
| France, Adjusted EBITDA margin | Lowest | 8.7 | 17.4 | 17.4 | 17.4 | ||
| Southern Europe, Adjusted EBITDA margin | Number of Estimates | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||
| Southern Europe, Adjusted EBITDA margin | Highest | 23.5 | 20.9 | 21.1 | 21.4 | ||
| Southern Europe, Adjusted EBITDA margin | Consensus (Mean) | 16.0 | 21.1 | 16.2 | 19.2 | 19.6 | 19.7 |
| Southern Europe, Adjusted EBITDA margin | Median | 15.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 | ||
| Southern Europe, Adjusted EBITDA margin | Lowest | 10.7 | 18.0 | 18.9 | 19.0 | ||
| Central and Eastern Europe, Adjusted EBITDA margin | Number of Estimates | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||
| Central and Eastern Europe, Adjusted EBITDA margin | Highest | 23.1 | 23.4 | 23.6 | 24.1 | ||
| Central and Eastern Europe, Adjusted EBITDA margin | Consensus (Mean) | 19.5 | 23.4 | 15.8 | 21.8 | 22.2 | 22.3 |
| Central and Eastern Europe, Adjusted EBITDA margin | Median | 18.7 | 22.3 | 22.6 | 22.8 | ||
| Central and Eastern Europe, Adjusted EBITDA margin | Lowest | 1.3 | 19.0 | 19.5 | 19.5 | ||
| Parfumdreams/Niche Beauty, Adjusted EBITDA margin | Number of Estimates | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||
| Parfumdreams/Niche Beauty, Adjusted EBITDA margin | Highest | 173.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | ||
| Parfumdreams/Niche Beauty, Adjusted EBITDA margin | Consensus (Mean) | -2.0 | 2.1 | 21.6 | -4.0 | -3.4 | -3.5 |
| Parfumdreams/Niche Beauty, Adjusted EBITDA margin | Median | 2.5 | -0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | ||
| Parfumdreams/Niche Beauty, Adjusted EBITDA margin | Lowest | -74.6 | -22.4 | -20.5 | -21.4 | ||
| Reported EBIT | Number of Estimates | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | ||
| Reported EBIT | Highest | 29.0 | 193.0 | 330.9 | 357.8 | ||
| Reported EBIT | Consensus (Mean) | 27.3 | 368.6 | 12.2 | 176.2 | 302.7 | 318.4 |
| Reported EBIT | Median | 14.4 | 178.4 | 305.6 | 318.5 | ||
| Reported EBIT | Lowest | -1.5 | 162.5 | 251.3 | 247.0 | ||
| Reported EBIT Margin | Number of Estimates | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | ||
| Reported EBIT Margin | Highest | 3.0 | 4.2 | 6.9 | 7.1 | ||
| Reported EBIT Margin | Consensus (Mean) | 2.8 | 8.1 | 1.2 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 6.6 |
| Reported EBIT Margin | Median | 1.5 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 6.6 | ||
| Reported EBIT Margin | Lowest | -0.2 | 3.5 | 5.6 | 5.5 | ||
| Adjusted EBIT | Number of Estimates | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | ||
| Adjusted EBIT | Highest | 36.7 | 322.5 | 333.4 | 360.3 | ||
| Adjusted EBIT | Consensus (Mean) | 39.0 | 402.9 | 12.6 | 298.4 | 303.3 | 316.0 |
| Adjusted EBIT | Median | 11.8 | 297.6 | 308.1 | 318.6 | ||
| Adjusted EBIT | Lowest | -2.8 | 283.0 | 261.3 | 257.0 | ||
| Adjusted EBIT Margin | Number of Estimates | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | ||
| Adjusted EBIT Margin | Highest | 3.7 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 7.1 | ||
| Adjusted EBIT Margin | Consensus (Mean) | 4.0 | 8.8 | 1.3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.6 |
| Adjusted EBIT Margin | Median | 1.2 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 6.6 | ||
| Adjusted EBIT Margin | Lowest | -0.3 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 5.7 | ||
| Reported Net income | Number of Estimates | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | ||
| Reported Net income | Highest | 23.9 | 41.5 | 137.0 | 159.0 | ||
| Reported Net income | Consensus (Mean) | 14.1 | 175.4 | -10.7 | 6.9 | 123.6 | 138.4 |
| Reported Net income | Median | -10.7 | 6.9 | 126.4 | 141.8 | ||
| Reported Net income | Lowest | -29.6 | -12.0 | 87.7 | 86.8 | ||
| Adjusted Net Income | Number of Estimates | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | ||
| Adjusted Net Income | Highest | 18.8 | 151.2 | 167.0 | 191.0 | ||
| Adjusted Net Income | Consensus (Mean) | 27.1 | 212.2 | -6.5 | 126.0 | 130.9 | 144.5 |
| Adjusted Net Income | Median | -8.5 | 123.9 | 130.1 | 142.2 | ||
| Adjusted Net Income | Lowest | -20.2 | 112.9 | 94.7 | 93.8 | ||
| Net leverage ratio | Number of Estimates | - | 9 | 9 | 9 | ||
| Net leverage ratio | Highest | - | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.1 | ||
| Net leverage ratio | Consensus (Mean) | 2.9 | 2.9 | - | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.8 |
| Net leverage ratio | Median | - | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.8 | ||
| Net leverage ratio | Lowest | - | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
This document has been issued by Vara Research GmbH for information purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment advice. It is based on estimates and forecasts of various analysts regarding revenues, earnings and business developments of the relevant company. The company did not participate in the compilation of the estimates and it does not endorse them. Such estimates and forecasts cannot be independently verified by reason of the subjective character. Vara Research GmbH gives no guarantee, representation or warranty and is not responsible or liable as to its accuracy and completeness.
