| KPI | [EUR m] | Q3 2023 | FY 2023 | Q3 2024 E | FY 2024 E | FY 2025 E | FY 2026 E | FY 2027 E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | Number of Estimates | 8 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 11 | ||
| Sales | Highest | 4,034.7 | 15,768.0 | 16,397.0 | 17,053.0 | 17,736.0 | ||
| Sales | Average | 3,917.4 | 15,315.9 | 15,680.2 | 16,255.5 | 16,754.8 | ||
| Sales | Consensus (Median) | 3,771.0 | 15,267.0 | 3,929.6 | 15,298.7 | 15,728.4 | 16,204.3 | 16,725.5 |
| Sales | Lowest | 3,811.2 | 14,950.0 | 14,976.0 | 15,620.0 | 16,063.0 | ||
| thereof volumes in % | Number of Estimates | 8 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 7 | ||
| thereof volumes in % | Highest | 8.3 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 4.0 | ||
| thereof volumes in % | Average | 5.2 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | ||
| thereof volumes in % | Consensus (Median) | -5.0 | -8.0 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 2.5 |
| thereof volumes in % | Lowest | 3.5 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.6 | ||
| thereof prices in % | Number of Estimates | 8 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 7 | ||
| thereof prices in % | Highest | 1.1 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 2.1 | ||
| thereof prices in % | Average | -0.3 | -1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.4 | ||
| thereof prices in % | Consensus (Median) | -6.0 | -3.0 | 0.1 | -1.6 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| thereof prices in % | Lowest | -2.9 | -3.0 | -1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| thereof FX in % | Number of Estimates | 8 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 7 | ||
| thereof FX in % | Highest | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| thereof FX in % | Average | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| thereof FX in % | Consensus (Median) | -4.0 | -2.0 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| thereof FX in % | Lowest | -0.3 | -0.6 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| thereof other incl. M&A in % | Number of Estimates | 8 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 7 | ||
| thereof other incl. M&A in % | Highest | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | ||
| thereof other incl. M&A in % | Average | -1.4 | -1.8 | -1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| thereof other incl. M&A in % | Consensus (Median) | -8.0 | -4.0 | 0.0 | -2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| thereof other incl. M&A in % | Lowest | -6.0 | -3.9 | -4.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA | Number of Estimates | 8 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 10 | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA | Highest | 584.9 | 2,162.0 | 2,490.0 | 2,542.7 | 2,752.8 | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA | Average | 571.0 | 2,096.5 | 2,246.7 | 2,378.6 | 2,520.5 | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA | Consensus (Median) | 485.0 | 1,656.0 | 576.8 | 2,110.7 | 2,227.0 | 2,374.6 | 2,561.1 |
| Adjusted EBITDA | Lowest | 536.3 | 1,983.0 | 2,075.2 | 2,146.6 | 2,210.8 | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA margin in % | Number of Estimates | 8 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 10 | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA margin in % | Highest | 15.1 | 14.5 | 16.6 | 16.1 | 16.8 | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA margin in % | Average | 14.6 | 13.7 | 14.4 | 14.7 | 15.1 | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA margin in % | Consensus (Median) | 12.9 | 10.8 | 14.5 | 13.8 | 14.3 | 14.6 | 14.9 |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin in % | Lowest | 14.0 | 12.6 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 13.5 | ||
| Depreciation and amortization (adjusted) | Number of Estimates | 8 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 10 | ||
| Depreciation and amortization (adjusted) | Highest | -259.7 | -995.9 | -1,020.0 | -1,020.0 | -1,027.0 | ||
| Depreciation and amortization (adjusted) | Average | -270.4 | -1,054.1 | -1,072.9 | -1,094.9 | -1,120.5 | ||
| Depreciation and amortization (adjusted) | Consensus (Median) | -283.0 | -1,135.0 | -268.2 | -1,044.1 | -1,072.6 | -1,093.9 | -1,111.9 |
| Depreciation and amortization (adjusted) | Lowest | -283.0 | -1,135.0 | -1,164.0 | -1,194.0 | -1,224.0 | ||
| Adjusted EBIT | Number of Estimates | 8 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 11 | ||
| Adjusted EBIT | Highest | 322.9 | 1,145.0 | 1,459.0 | 1,462.7 | 1,647.8 | ||
| Adjusted EBIT | Average | 300.7 | 1,042.4 | 1,168.4 | 1,280.1 | 1,397.1 | ||
| Adjusted EBIT | Consensus (Median) | 202.0 | 521.0 | 303.0 | 1,050.5 | 1,172.0 | 1,237.0 | 1,374.4 |
| Adjusted EBIT | Lowest | 267.9 | 907.0 | 984.1 | 1,034.5 | 1,073.8 | ||
| Adjusted net financial results | Number of Estimates | 8 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 9 | ||
| Adjusted net financial results | Highest | -17.0 | -104.4 | -50.2 | -73.4 | -46.8 | ||
| Adjusted net financial results | Average | -30.5 | -131.2 | -118.1 | -115.2 | -105.6 | ||
| Adjusted net financial results | Consensus (Median) | -13.0 | -103.0 | -28.0 | -137.1 | -120.4 | -115.1 | -108.3 |
| Adjusted net financial results | Lowest | -47.8 | -149.0 | -178.0 | -175.0 | -171.0 | ||
| D&A on intangible assets | Number of Estimates | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | ||
| D&A on intangible assets | Highest | 47.6 | 165.1 | 165.2 | 165.3 | 165.4 | ||
| D&A on intangible assets | Average | 36.8 | 138.3 | 141.3 | 140.1 | 138.5 | ||
| D&A on intangible assets | Consensus (Median) | 38.0 | 153.0 | 37.1 | 143.0 | 144.0 | 144.0 | 144.0 |
| D&A on intangible assets | Lowest | 30.0 | 107.0 | 106.0 | 109.0 | 109.0 | ||
| Adjusted income taxes | Number of Estimates | 8 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 9 | ||
| Adjusted income taxes | Highest | -56.5 | -221.0 | -298.1 | -319.5 | -335.6 | ||
| Adjusted income taxes | Average | -87.8 | -283.9 | -356.4 | -391.2 | -431.2 | ||
| Adjusted income taxes | Consensus (Median) | -33.0 | -188.0 | -92.0 | -299.1 | -356.4 | -390.6 | -441.8 |
| Adjusted income taxes | Lowest | -98.3 | -339.9 | -460.6 | -497.2 | -534.6 | ||
| Adjusted non-controlling interest | Number of Estimates | 8 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9 | ||
| Adjusted non-controlling interest | Highest | -1.5 | -12.0 | -12.0 | -13.0 | -13.0 | ||
| Adjusted non-controlling interest | Average | -5.6 | -17.2 | -19.3 | -21.1 | -22.9 | ||
| Adjusted non-controlling interest | Consensus (Median) | -5.0 | -13.0 | -4.7 | -15.2 | -17.8 | -19.7 | -20.0 |
| Adjusted non-controlling interest | Lowest | -14.4 | -38.9 | -46.6 | -49.9 | -53.6 | ||
| Adjusted net income (Evonik definition) | Number of Estimates | 8 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 11 | ||
| Adjusted net income (Evonik definition) | Highest | 226.8 | 805.3 | 998.0 | 1,038.5 | 1,175.3 | ||
| Adjusted net income (Evonik definition) | Average | 213.6 | 723.8 | 806.1 | 886.4 | 968.1 | ||
| Adjusted net income (Evonik definition) | Consensus (Median) | 189.0 | 370.0 | 213.2 | 742.6 | 812.6 | 900.0 | 992.0 |
| Adjusted net income (Evonik definition) | Lowest | 191.3 | 420.0 | 456.0 | 571.0 | 658.0 | ||
| Average number of shares | Number of Estimates | 8 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 11 | ||
| Average number of shares | Highest | 466.0 | 466.0 | 466.0 | 466.0 | 466.0 | ||
| Average number of shares | Average | 466.0 | 466.0 | 466.0 | 466.0 | 466.0 | ||
| Average number of shares | Consensus (Median) | 466.0 | 466.0 | 466.0 | 466.0 | 466.0 | 466.0 | 466.0 |
| Average number of shares | Lowest | 466.0 | 466.0 | 466.0 | 466.0 | 466.0 | ||
| Adjusted EPS (in Euro) (Evonik definition) | Number of Estimates | 8 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 | ||
| Adjusted EPS (in Euro) (Evonik definition) | Highest | 0.49 | 1.73 | 2.14 | 2.23 | 2.52 | ||
| Adjusted EPS (in Euro) (Evonik definition) | Average | 0.46 | 1.57 | 1.75 | 1.93 | 2.10 | ||
| Adjusted EPS (in Euro) (Evonik definition) | Consensus (Median) | 0.41 | 0.79 | 0.46 | 1.59 | 1.76 | 1.94 | 2.13 |
| Adjusted EPS (in Euro) (Evonik definition) | Lowest | 0.41 | 1.13 | 1.21 | 1.45 | 1.64 | ||
| Adjustments | Number of Estimates | 5 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 9 | ||
| Adjustments | Highest | 31.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Adjustments | Average | -4.8 | -189.0 | -52.1 | -55.6 | -53.7 | ||
| Adjustments | Consensus (Median) | -303.0 | -764.0 | 0.0 | -250.0 | -30.0 | -52.5 | -30.0 |
| Adjustments | Lowest | -30.0 | -320.0 | -150.0 | -150.0 | -150.0 | ||
| EBIT (reported) | Number of Estimates | 5 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 10 | ||
| EBIT (reported) | Highest | 353.9 | 1,088.0 | 1,439.0 | 1,417.8 | 1,527.8 | ||
| EBIT (reported) | Average | 297.0 | 850.4 | 1,125.0 | 1,230.1 | 1,351.6 | ||
| EBIT (reported) | Consensus (Median) | -101.0 | -243.0 | 307.4 | 831.0 | 1,120.0 | 1,218.0 | 1,346.7 |
| EBIT (reported) | Lowest | 237.9 | 687.2 | 851.0 | 1,013.0 | 1,073.8 | ||
| Net income attributable to shareholders (reported) | Number of Estimates | 5 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 8 | ||
| Net income attributable to shareholders (reported) | Highest | 223.6 | 767.0 | 962.0 | 919.5 | 1,020.5 | ||
| Net income attributable to shareholders (reported) | Average | 182.1 | 468.6 | 707.5 | 780.3 | 867.1 | ||
| Net income attributable to shareholders (reported) | Consensus (Median) | -96.0 | -465.0 | 182.9 | 422.9 | 719.4 | 810.6 | 882.6 |
| Net income attributable to shareholders (reported) | Lowest | 145.1 | 341.7 | 456.0 | 571.0 | 658.0 | ||
| EPS (in Euro) (reported) | Number of Estimates | 5 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 8 | ||
| EPS (in Euro) (reported) | Highest | 0.48 | 1.65 | 2.06 | 1.97 | 2.19 | ||
| EPS (in Euro) (reported) | Average | 0.39 | 1.01 | 1.52 | 1.67 | 1.86 | ||
| EPS (in Euro) (reported) | Consensus (Median) | -0.21 | -1.00 | 0.39 | 0.91 | 1.54 | 1.74 | 1.89 |
| EPS (in Euro) (reported) | Lowest | 0.31 | 0.73 | 0.98 | 1.23 | 1.41 | ||
| Dividend per share (in Euro) | Number of Estimates | - | 13 | 13 | 12 | 9 | ||
| Dividend per share (in Euro) | Highest | - | 1.19 | 1.22 | 1.27 | 1.32 | ||
| Dividend per share (in Euro) | Average | - | 1.17 | 1.18 | 1.19 | 1.20 | ||
| Dividend per share (in Euro) | Consensus (Median) | - | 1.17 | - | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| Dividend per share (in Euro) | Lowest | - | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.17 | ||
| Operating Cash Flow | Number of Estimates | - | 13 | 13 | 12 | 9 | ||
| Operating Cash Flow | Highest | - | 1,706.0 | 1,889.0 | 1,936.4 | 2,072.1 | ||
| Operating Cash Flow | Average | - | 1,569.2 | 1,689.9 | 1,773.1 | 1,896.3 | ||
| Operating Cash Flow | Consensus (Median) | 631.0 | 1,594.0 | - | 1,616.0 | 1,722.0 | 1,812.4 | 1,966.3 |
| Operating Cash Flow | Lowest | - | 1,233.0 | 1,229.0 | 1,362.0 | 1,466.0 | ||
| Capex | Number of Estimates | - | 13 | 13 | 12 | 10 | ||
| Capex | Highest | - | -698.1 | -736.3 | -733.1 | -743.4 | ||
| Capex | Average | - | -751.3 | -808.0 | -828.6 | -848.2 | ||
| Capex | Consensus (Median) | -162.0 | -793.0 | - | -750.0 | -800.0 | -825.2 | -850.5 |
| Capex | Lowest | - | -799.0 | -866.0 | -900.0 | -936.0 | ||
| Free Cash Flow | Number of Estimates | - | 13 | 13 | 12 | 9 | ||
| Free Cash Flow | Highest | - | 956.0 | 1,098.0 | 1,124.3 | 1,222.9 | ||
| Free Cash Flow | Average | - | 817.9 | 882.0 | 944.5 | 1,052.1 | ||
| Free Cash Flow | Consensus (Median) | 469.0 | 801.0 | - | 839.0 | 880.8 | 957.3 | 1,081.0 |
| Free Cash Flow | Lowest | - | 478.0 | 449.0 | 577.0 | 676.0 | ||
| Net financial debt (-cash) | Number of Estimates | - | 13 | 13 | 12 | 9 | ||
| Net financial debt (-cash) | Highest | - | 4,082.1 | 3,879.1 | 3,618.3 | 3,470.0 | ||
| Net financial debt (-cash) | Average | - | 3,239.1 | 2,960.7 | 2,658.9 | 2,224.4 | ||
| Net financial debt (-cash) | Consensus (Median) | 3,740.0 | 3,310.0 | - | 3,322.0 | 3,084.0 | 2,591.8 | 2,137.9 |
| Net financial debt (-cash) | Lowest | - | 2,121.0 | 1,479.0 | 1,187.0 | 811.0 |
This document has been issued by Vara Research GmbH for information purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment advice. It is based on estimates and forecasts of various analysts regarding revenues, earnings and business developments of the relevant company. The company did not participate in the compilation of the estimates and it does not endorse them. Such estimates and forecasts cannot be independently verified by reason of the subjective character. Vara Research GmbH gives no guarantee, representation or warranty and is not responsible or liable as to its accuracy and completeness.
