| KPI | [Pound m] | H1 2019/20 | H2 2019/20 | FY 2019/20 | H1 2020 E | H2 2020 E | FY 2020/21 E | FY 2021/22 E | FY 2022/23 E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Number of Estimates | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 7 | |||
| Revenue | Highest | 6,832.5 | 9,351.1 | 16,183.6 | 17,708.3 | 18,842.3 | |||
| Revenue | Consensus (Mean) | 6,818.0 | 7,759.0 | 14,577.0 | 5,971.1 | 7,402.1 | 13,650.1 | 14,736.8 | 15,237.0 |
| Revenue | Lowest | 5,299.5 | 6,024.7 | 11,512.0 | 12,457.0 | 12,706.0 | |||
| Sales excluding precious metals | Number of Estimates | 4 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 8 | |||
| Sales excluding precious metals | Highest | 1,892.2 | 2,257.1 | 3,987.5 | 4,483.3 | 4,847.3 | |||
| Sales excluding precious metals | Consensus (Mean) | 2,124.0 | 2,046.0 | 4,170.0 | 1,713.4 | 1,953.7 | 3,670.8 | 4,041.9 | 4,309.4 |
| Sales excluding precious metals | Lowest | 1,522.0 | 1,478.4 | 3,356.0 | 3,383.0 | 3,817.0 | |||
| Underlying EBITDA | Number of Estimates | 3 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 | |||
| Underlying EBITDA | Highest | 294.4 | 370.8 | 665.2 | 803.5 | 899.6 | |||
| Underlying EBITDA | Consensus (Mean) | 350.0 | 355.0 | 705.0 | 282.4 | 341.4 | 608.9 | 747.0 | 810.5 |
| Underlying EBITDA | Lowest | 265.8 | 306.4 | 561.0 | 706.0 | 740.0 | |||
| Underlying operating profit (underlying EBIT) | Number of Estimates | 4 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 9 | |||
| Underlying operating profit (underlying EBIT) | Highest | 215.0 | 283.8 | 491.4 | 630.0 | 694.0 | |||
| Underlying operating profit (underlying EBIT) | Consensus (Mean) | 265.0 | 274.0 | 539.0 | 174.6 | 260.9 | 423.4 | 534.1 | 590.5 |
| Underlying operating profit (underlying EBIT) | Lowest | 101.0 | 231.3 | 382.0 | 377.0 | 463.0 | |||
| Operating profit (EBIT) | Number of Estimates | 4 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 7 | |||
| Operating profit (EBIT) | Highest | 209.0 | 273.5 | 476.0 | 591.8 | 673.8 | |||
| Operating profit (EBIT) | Consensus (Mean) | 259.0 | 129.0 | 388.0 | 164.7 | 247.2 | 388.1 | 498.0 | 560.6 |
| Operating profit (EBIT) | Lowest | 94.5 | 222.4 | 318.1 | 363.0 | 449.0 | |||
| Net finance charges | Number of Estimates | 4 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 9 | |||
| Net finance charges | Highest | -34.0 | -32.6 | -61.0 | -41.5 | -23.5 | |||
| Net finance charges | Consensus (Mean) | -36.0 | -50.0 | -86.0 | -51.1 | -50.9 | -86.2 | -78.3 | -58.6 |
| Net finance charges | Lowest | -79.8 | -79.8 | -159.6 | -154.2 | -93.7 | |||
| Underlying profit before tax | Number of Estimates | 4 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 9 | |||
| Underlying profit before tax | Highest | 162.2 | 237.5 | 399.7 | 571.0 | 642.0 | |||
| Underlying profit before tax | Consensus (Mean) | 231.0 | 224.0 | 455.0 | 124.0 | 210.5 | 338.0 | 456.5 | 532.6 |
| Underlying profit before tax | Lowest | 58.0 | 151.5 | 286.7 | 306.0 | 387.0 | |||
| Profit before tax | Number of Estimates | 4 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 7 | |||
| Profit before tax | Highest | 161.9 | 230.0 | 384.2 | 483.1 | 580.1 | |||
| Profit before tax | Consensus (Mean) | 225.0 | 80.0 | 305.0 | 114.0 | 196.7 | 296.8 | 412.6 | 500.5 |
| Profit before tax | Lowest | 51.0 | 144.5 | 244.1 | 292.0 | 373.0 | |||
| Underlying tax rate (%) | Number of Estimates | 4 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 9 | |||
| Underlying tax rate (%) | Highest | 17.2 | 16.9 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.1 | |||
| Underlying tax rate (%) | Consensus (Mean) | 20.3 | 11.2 | 15.8 | 16.5 | 16.3 | 16.2 | 15.8 | 15.8 |
| Underlying tax rate (%) | Lowest | 15.6 | 16.0 | 13.8 | 11.0 | 11.0 | |||
| Underlying profit attributable to equity holders | Number of Estimates | 4 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 9 | |||
| Underlying profit attributable to equity holders | Highest | 134.6 | 199.1 | 333.8 | 480.0 | 539.0 | |||
| Underlying profit attributable to equity holders | Consensus (Mean) | 184.0 | 199.0 | 383.0 | 103.8 | 176.0 | 283.1 | 385.4 | 449.5 |
| Underlying profit attributable to equity holders | Lowest | 48.0 | 127.1 | 240.8 | 248.0 | 313.0 | |||
| Profit attributable to equity holders | Number of Estimates | 4 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 7 | |||
| Profit attributable to equity holders | Highest | 134.4 | 192.0 | 318.3 | 428.5 | 515.0 | |||
| Profit attributable to equity holders | Consensus (Mean) | 176.0 | 79.0 | 255.0 | 98.7 | 168.3 | 251.4 | 355.8 | 422.8 |
| Profit attributable to equity holders | Lowest | 41.0 | 142.6 | 201.4 | 239.0 | 306.0 | |||
| Underlying EPS (in pence) | Number of Estimates | 4 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 8 | |||
| Underlying EPS (in pence) | Highest | 69.95 | 103.48 | 173.43 | 249.40 | 280.10 | |||
| Underlying EPS (in pence) | Consensus (Mean) | 95.80 | 103.34 | 199.20 | 53.99 | 91.62 | 145.22 | 198.30 | 234.78 |
| Underlying EPS (in pence) | Lowest | 25.04 | 66.07 | 125.15 | 128.50 | 162.18 | |||
| Reported EPS (in pence) | Number of Estimates | 4 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 7 | |||
| Reported EPS (in pence) | Highest | 69.83 | 100.16 | 165.38 | 222.68 | 267.60 | |||
| Reported EPS (in pence) | Consensus (Mean) | 91.80 | 41.02 | 132.30 | 51.35 | 87.60 | 134.50 | 188.74 | 219.74 |
| Reported EPS (in pence) | Lowest | 21.39 | 74.09 | 104.67 | 123.83 | 158.55 | |||
| Ordinary dividend per share (in pence) | Number of Estimates | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 9 | |||
| Ordinary dividend per share (in pence) | Highest | 21.00 | 43.97 | 87.60 | 92.10 | 103.40 | |||
| Ordinary dividend per share (in pence) | Consensus (Mean) | 24.50 | 31.13 | 55.63 | 18.87 | 33.18 | 59.07 | 74.03 | 82.12 |
| Ordinary dividend per share (in pence) | Lowest | 16.74 | 22.39 | 38.30 | 55.63 | 64.95 | |||
| Capex spend | Number of Estimates | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 9 | |||
| Capex spend | Highest | -158.1 | -155.2 | -347.0 | -334.0 | -250.0 | |||
| Capex spend | Consensus (Mean) | -176.0 | -259.0 | -435.0 | -178.4 | -199.0 | -387.1 | -381.3 | -384.9 |
| Capex spend | Lowest | -198.7 | -242.7 | -400.8 | -439.0 | -500.0 | |||
| Net debt | Number of Estimates | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 9 | |||
| Net debt | Highest | 1,140.2 | 1,300.6 | 1,300.6 | 1,289.0 | 1,457.0 | |||
| Net debt | Consensus (Mean) | 1,488.0 | 1,094.0 | 1,094.0 | 1,114.7 | 796.7 | 1,026.5 | 987.7 | 986.1 |
| Net debt | Lowest | 1,089.2 | 292.8 | 292.8 | -37.0 | -187.7 | |||
| Clean Air sales | Number of Estimates | 4 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 7 | |||
| Clean Air sales | Highest | 1,190.5 | 1,354.9 | 2,385.9 | 2,769.2 | 3,036.1 | |||
| Clean Air sales | Consensus (Mean) | 1,392.0 | 1,226.0 | 2,618.0 | 1,042.6 | 1,203.1 | 2,182.8 | 2,461.2 | 2,648.8 |
| Clean Air sales | Lowest | 905.0 | 1,088.4 | 1,918.1 | 1,807.0 | 2,140.0 | |||
| Clean Air, underlying operating profit | Number of Estimates | 4 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 7 | |||
| Clean Air, underlying operating profit | Highest | 139.8 | 171.3 | 274.4 | 364.4 | 419.0 | |||
| Clean Air, underlying operating profit | Consensus (Mean) | 179.0 | 116.0 | 295.0 | 90.1 | 133.9 | 207.5 | 298.1 | 323.5 |
| Clean Air, underlying operating profit | Lowest | 13.0 | 87.0 | 146.4 | 162.0 | 213.0 | |||
| Efficient Natural Resources sales | Number of Estimates | 4 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 7 | |||
| Efficient Natural Resources sales | Highest | 517.9 | 660.0 | 1,092.4 | 1,142.0 | 1,188.1 | |||
| Efficient Natural Resources sales | Consensus (Mean) | 496.0 | 583.0 | 1,079.0 | 443.2 | 572.2 | 1,015.3 | 1,051.1 | 1,074.8 |
| Efficient Natural Resources sales | Lowest | 397.0 | 504.7 | 941.1 | 958.5 | 975.9 | |||
| Efficient Natural Resources, underlying operating profit | Number of Estimates | 4 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 7 | |||
| Efficient Natural Resources, underlying operating profit | Highest | 98.4 | 139.0 | 230.0 | 244.9 | 248.3 | |||
| Efficient Natural Resources, underlying operating profit | Consensus (Mean) | 94.0 | 162.0 | 256.0 | 81.0 | 122.6 | 208.5 | 211.7 | 217.7 |
| Efficient Natural Resources, underlying operating profit | Lowest | 67.1 | 109.2 | 176.7 | 190.2 | 195.9 | |||
| Health sales | Number of Estimates | 4 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 7 | |||
| Health sales | Highest | 132.5 | 146.0 | 278.5 | 321.4 | 369.6 | |||
| Health sales | Consensus (Mean) | 111.0 | 112.0 | 223.0 | 123.0 | 126.6 | 249.6 | 275.6 | 298.4 |
| Health sales | Lowest | 115.2 | 118.0 | 233.0 | 253.0 | 270.4 | |||
| Health, underlying operating profit | Number of Estimates | 4 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 7 | |||
| Health, underlying operating profit | Highest | 31.2 | 29.2 | 60.4 | 85.7 | 114.6 | |||
| Health, underlying operating profit | Consensus (Mean) | 18.0 | 9.0 | 27.0 | 21.5 | 23.3 | 42.6 | 56.8 | 67.6 |
| Health, underlying operating profit | Lowest | 15.0 | 15.0 | 30.0 | 45.0 | 53.0 | |||
| New Markets sales | Number of Estimates | 4 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 7 | |||
| New Markets sales | Highest | 193.9 | 223.3 | 417.0 | 466.0 | 539.0 | |||
| New Markets sales | Consensus (Mean) | 186.0 | 203.0 | 389.0 | 183.9 | 113.0 | 348.8 | 372.2 | 414.0 |
| New Markets sales | Lowest | 158.0 | -182.7 | 11.1 | 19.6 | 151.9 | |||
| New Markets, underlying operating profit | Number of Estimates | 4 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 7 | |||
| New Markets, underlying operating profit | Highest | 2.9 | 5.5 | 18.1 | 52.0 | 32.8 | |||
| New Markets, underlying operating profit | Consensus (Mean) | -8.0 | 7.0 | -1.0 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 7.3 | 12.4 | 15.3 |
| New Markets, underlying operating profit | Lowest | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | |||
| Corporate, underlying operating profit | Number of Estimates | 4 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 7 | |||
| Corporate, underlying operating profit | Highest | -15.0 | -18.5 | -38.0 | -38.0 | -38.0 | |||
| Corporate, underlying operating profit | Consensus (Mean) | -18.0 | -20.0 | -38.0 | -19.8 | -22.2 | -42.4 | -44.9 | -44.7 |
| Corporate, underlying operating profit | Lowest | -23.7 | -30.0 | -54.0 | -52.0 | -51.0 |
This document has been issued by Vara Research GmbH for information purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment advice. It is based on estimates and forecasts of various analysts regarding revenues, earnings and business developments of the relevant company. The company did not participate in the compilation of the estimates and it does not endorse them. Such estimates and forecasts cannot be independently verified by reason of the subjective character. Vara Research GmbH gives no guarantee, representation or warranty and is not responsible or liable as to its accuracy and completeness.
