Note: All FY 2021 estimates are on a pro forma basis, including the aquisition of Rancher Labs. The pro forma adjustments made are in line with company disclosure.
Note: All FY 2021 estimates are on a pro forma basis, including the aquisition of Rancher Labs. The pro forma adjustments made are in line with company disclosure.
| KPI | USD m | Q3 2022 | FY 2022 | Q3 2023 E | FY 2023 E | FY 2024 E | FY 2025 E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACV by Solution, Core | Number of Estimates | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | ||
| ACV by Solution, Core | Highest | 104.4 | 451.2 | 500.5 | 555.5 | ||
| ACV by Solution, Core | Consensus (Mean) | 93.2 | 429.1 | 96.7 | 436.4 | 469.6 | 511.7 |
| ACV by Solution, Core | Median | 98.4 | 436.3 | 466.1 | 507.7 | ||
| ACV by Solution, Core | Lowest | 86.0 | 424.7 | 456.3 | 481.3 | ||
| ACV by Solution, Emerging | Number of Estimates | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | ||
| ACV by Solution, Emerging | Highest | 28.7 | 122.3 | 154.0 | 192.5 | ||
| ACV by Solution, Emerging | Consensus (Mean) | 21.2 | 106.8 | 24.3 | 116.1 | 134.7 | 162.9 |
| ACV by Solution, Emerging | Median | 23.5 | 115.6 | 128.6 | 155.2 | ||
| ACV by Solution, Emerging | Lowest | 21.9 | 110.5 | 122.7 | 135.0 | ||
| ACV by Solution, Total | Number of Estimates | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | ||
| ACV by Solution, Total | Highest | 132.6 | 573.5 | 654.5 | 748.0 | ||
| ACV by Solution, Total | Consensus (Mean) | 114.4 | 535.9 | 120.9 | 552.5 | 604.3 | 674.5 |
| ACV by Solution, Total | Median | 121.9 | 551.5 | 596.4 | 662.0 | ||
| ACV by Solution, Total | Lowest | 107.9 | 535.2 | 578.9 | 616.3 | ||
| Adjusted revenue, Core | Number of Estimates | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | ||
| Adjusted revenue, Core | Highest | 139.1 | 559.2 | 597.0 | 653.3 | ||
| Adjusted revenue, Core | Consensus (Mean) | 142.9 | 546.8 | 134.2 | 553.7 | 587.4 | 634.6 |
| Adjusted revenue, Core | Median | 133.8 | 553.7 | 589.6 | 632.9 | ||
| Adjusted revenue, Core | Lowest | 131.8 | 549.8 | 574.4 | 618.0 | ||
| Adjusted revenue, Emerging | Number of Estimates | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | ||
| Adjusted revenue, Emerging | Highest | 30.1 | 129.8 | 156.1 | 199.3 | ||
| Adjusted revenue, Emerging | Consensus (Mean) | 28.3 | 111.0 | 29.3 | 124.0 | 137.4 | 164.1 |
| Adjusted revenue, Emerging | Median | 29.5 | 122.9 | 137.8 | 161.7 | ||
| Adjusted revenue, Emerging | Lowest | 28.1 | 121.1 | 123.2 | 142.1 | ||
| Adjusted revenue, Total | Number of Estimates | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | ||
| Adjusted revenue, Total | Highest | 168.9 | 682.3 | 749.9 | 852.6 | ||
| Adjusted revenue, Total | Consensus (Mean) | 171.2 | 657.8 | 163.6 | 677.7 | 724.9 | 798.7 |
| Adjusted revenue, Total | Median | 162.7 | 677.9 | 719.3 | 793.4 | ||
| Adjusted revenue, Total | Lowest | 161.1 | 671.0 | 709.7 | 763.2 | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA | Number of Estimates | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA | Highest | 56.7 | 239.9 | 264.8 | 307.4 | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA | Consensus (Mean) | 65.1 | 241.9 | 53.5 | 234.7 | 250.1 | 282.8 |
| Adjusted EBITDA | Median | 52.9 | 234.1 | 250.6 | 280.6 | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA | Lowest | 51.2 | 231.5 | 237.7 | 268.7 | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA margin (%) | Number of Estimates | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA margin (%) | Highest | 35 | 35 | 35 | 37 | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA margin (%) | Consensus (Mean) | 38 | 37 | 33 | 35 | 34 | 35 |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin (%) | Median | 32 | 35 | 35 | 35 | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA margin (%) | Lowest | 32 | 34 | 33 | 35 | ||
| Adjusted Cash EBITDA | Number of Estimates | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | ||
| Adjusted Cash EBITDA | Highest | 58.0 | 221.7 | 294.8 | 342.6 | ||
| Adjusted Cash EBITDA | Consensus (Mean) | 46.2 | 295.2 | 35.6 | 200.1 | 246.1 | 296.1 |
| Adjusted Cash EBITDA | Median | 34.9 | 212.1 | 253.2 | 297.2 | ||
| Adjusted Cash EBITDA | Lowest | 8.8 | 150.7 | 181.8 | 259.4 | ||
| Adjusted Cash EBITDA margin (%) | Number of Estimates | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | ||
| Adjusted Cash EBITDA margin (%) | Highest | 36 | 33 | 41 | 43 | ||
| Adjusted Cash EBITDA margin (%) | Consensus (Mean) | 27 | 45 | 22 | 30 | 34 | 37 |
| Adjusted Cash EBITDA margin (%) | Median | 21 | 31 | 35 | 37 | ||
| Adjusted Cash EBITDA margin (%) | Lowest | 5 | 22 | 25 | 33 | ||
| Adjusted unlevered Free Cash Flow | Number of Estimates | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | ||
| Adjusted unlevered Free Cash Flow | Highest | 44.3 | 159.5 | 208.8 | 234.0 | ||
| Adjusted unlevered Free Cash Flow | Consensus (Mean) | 61.5 | 187.7 | 35.0 | 131.6 | 175.6 | 203.7 |
| Adjusted unlevered Free Cash Flow | Median | 43.4 | 121.8 | 182.2 | 205.9 | ||
| Adjusted unlevered Free Cash Flow | Lowest | 9.1 | 109.5 | 137.8 | 170.6 | ||
| Net debt (at period end) | Number of Estimates | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | ||
| Net debt (at period end) | Highest | 511.5 | 515.9 | 403.1 | 257.0 | ||
| Net debt (at period end) | Consensus (Mean) | 604.0 | 557.7 | 487.6 | 472.9 | 325.3 | 166.0 |
| Net debt (at period end) | Median | 487.2 | 474.5 | 302.1 | 166.6 | ||
| Net debt (at period end) | Lowest | 464.4 | 404.6 | 265.5 | 72.9 |
This document has been issued by Vara Research GmbH for information purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment advice. It is based on estimates and forecasts of various analysts regarding revenues, earnings and business developments of the relevant company. The company did not participate in the compilation of the estimates and it does not endorse them. Such estimates and forecasts cannot be independently verified by reason of the subjective character. Vara Research GmbH gives no guarantee, representation or warranty and is not responsible or liable as to its accuracy and completeness.