| KPI | [EUR m] | Q1 2023 | FY 2023 | Q1 2024 E | FY 2024 E | FY 2025 E | FY 2026 E | FY 2027 E | FY 2028 E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | Number of Estimates | 11 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 7 | ||
| Sales | Highest | 14,643 | 47,744 | 49,614 | 51,003 | 50,282 | 52,868 | ||
| Sales | Average | 14,389 | 47,637 | 14,115 | 46,932 | 47,638 | 48,277 | 48,784 | 49,964 |
| Sales | Median | 14,041 | 46,811 | 47,419 | 48,320 | 49,064 | 49,402 | ||
| Sales | Lowest | 13,562 | 46,107 | 46,851 | 46,858 | 46,992 | 47,826 | ||
| FX impact on sales (in%) | Number of Estimates | 6 | 7 | 2 | - | - | - | ||
| FX impact on sales (in%) | Highest | -1.3 | -0.6 | -0.1 | - | - | - | ||
| FX impact on sales (in%) | Average | -0.6 | -1.2 | -2.4 | -1.7 | -0.1 | - | - | - |
| FX impact on sales (in%) | Median | -2.4 | -1.5 | -0.1 | - | - | - | ||
| FX impact on sales (in%) | Lowest | -3.7 | -2.6 | -0.1 | - | - | - | ||
| EBITDA before special items | Number of Estimates | 11 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 7 | ||
| EBITDA before special items | Highest | 4,426 | 11,175 | 11,193 | 11,155 | 11,600 | 12,451 | ||
| EBITDA before special items | Average | 4,471 | 11,706 | 4,176 | 10,516 | 10,713 | 10,850 | 10,966 | 11,388 |
| EBITDA before special items | Median | 4,229 | 10,430 | 10,731 | 10,917 | 11,071 | 11,307 | ||
| EBITDA before special items | Lowest | 3,290 | 10,180 | 10,029 | 10,227 | 9,973 | 10,641 | ||
| Special items | Number of Estimates | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 6 | ||
| Special items | Highest | -159 | -675 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Special items | Average | -153 | -1,074 | -336 | -1,526 | -966 | -761 | -418 | -455 |
| Special items | Median | -356 | -1,500 | -1,000 | -675 | -225 | -283 | ||
| Special items | Lowest | -561 | -2,532 | -2,356 | -1,519 | -1,498 | -1,522 | ||
| Net income (continuing operations) | Number of Estimates | 11 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 6 | ||
| Net income (continuing operations) | Highest | 2,235 | 4,826 | 4,759 | 3,967 | 3,928 | 4,361 | ||
| Net income (continuing operations) | Average | 2,178 | -2,941 | 1,766 | 2,448 | 3,088 | 3,156 | 3,501 | 3,909 |
| Net income (continuing operations) | Median | 1,863 | 2,202 | 2,951 | 3,194 | 3,620 | 3,938 | ||
| Net income (continuing operations) | Lowest | 852 | 1,218 | 2,237 | 2,347 | 2,810 | 3,270 | ||
| Average number of shares (m) | Number of Estimates | 11 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 6 | ||
| Average number of shares (m) | Highest | 982.42 | 982.42 | 982.42 | 982.42 | 982.42 | 982.42 | ||
| Average number of shares (m) | Average | 982.42 | 982.42 | 982.42 | 982.42 | 982.42 | 982.42 | 982.42 | 982.42 |
| Average number of shares (m) | Median | 982.42 | 982.42 | 982.42 | 982.42 | 982.42 | 982.42 | ||
| Average number of shares (m) | Lowest | 982.42 | 982.42 | 982.42 | 982.42 | 982.42 | 982.42 | ||
| Core EPS continuing operations (in EUR) | Number of Estimates | 11 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 6 | ||
| Core EPS continuing operations (in EUR) | Highest | 2.68 | 5.37 | 6.31 | 6.15 | 6.23 | 6.52 | ||
| Core EPS continuing operations (in EUR) | Average | 2.95 | 6.39 | 2.39 | 5.10 | 5.38 | 5.64 | 5.81 | 6.11 |
| Core EPS continuing operations (in EUR) | Median | 2.47 | 5.09 | 5.36 | 5.56 | 5.80 | 6.12 | ||
| Core EPS continuing operations (in EUR) | Lowest | 1.56 | 4.91 | 4.84 | 5.23 | 5.53 | 5.57 | ||
| DPS (in EUR) | Number of Estimates | - | 13 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 6 | ||
| DPS (in EUR) | Highest | - | 0.13 | 1.50 | 1.66 | 2.00 | 2.00 | ||
| DPS (in EUR) | Average | - | 0.11 | - | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.49 | 0.78 | 0.73 |
| DPS (in EUR) | Median | - | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.12 | ||
| DPS (in EUR) | Lowest | - | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | ||
| Net financial debt | Number of Estimates | - | 9 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | ||
| Net financial debt | Highest | - | 35,454 | 30,723 | 32,062 | 27,851 | 23,483 | ||
| Net financial debt | Average | 36,077 | 34,498 | - | 32,939 | 29,464 | 26,994 | 23,043 | 20,073 |
| Net financial debt | Median | - | 32,599 | 29,980 | 27,773 | 23,136 | 21,223 | ||
| Net financial debt | Lowest | - | 31,595 | 25,728 | 21,615 | 18,562 | 15,958 | ||
| Exchange rate USD/EUR (average) | Number of Estimates | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | ||
| Exchange rate USD/EUR (average) | Highest | 1.09 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.09 | 1.09 | ||
| Exchange rate USD/EUR (average) | Average | 1.07 | 1.08 | 1.09 | 1.09 | 1.09 | 1.08 | 1.09 | 1.09 |
| Exchange rate USD/EUR (average) | Median | 1.09 | 1.09 | 1.09 | 1.09 | 1.09 | 1.09 | ||
| Exchange rate USD/EUR (average) | Lowest | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.09 | 1.05 | 1.08 | 1.08 | ||
| Pharmaceuticals, Sales | Number of Estimates | 10 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 8 | ||
| Pharmaceuticals, Sales | Highest | 4,613 | 18,008 | 17,847 | 18,366 | 18,965 | 20,435 | ||
| Pharmaceuticals, Sales | Average | 4,407 | 18,081 | 4,340 | 17,546 | 17,321 | 17,111 | 16,958 | 17,268 |
| Pharmaceuticals, Sales | Median | 4,326 | 17,517 | 17,310 | 16,927 | 16,668 | 16,895 | ||
| Pharmaceuticals, Sales | Lowest | 4,143 | 16,996 | 16,746 | 16,107 | 15,441 | 15,462 | ||
| Xarelto | Number of Estimates | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | ||
| Xarelto | Highest | 963 | 3,673 | 3,373 | 2,975 | 1,960 | 1,500 | ||
| Xarelto | Average | 943 | 4,081 | 883 | 3,468 | 2,956 | 2,151 | 1,353 | 1,079 |
| Xarelto | Median | 878 | 3,476 | 3,090 | 2,067 | 1,232 | 1,159 | ||
| Xarelto | Lowest | 803 | 3,244 | 2,074 | 1,452 | 1,016 | 608 | ||
| Eylea | Number of Estimates | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | ||
| Eylea | Highest | 797 | 3,231 | 3,231 | 3,160 | 3,160 | 3,002 | ||
| Eylea | Average | 789 | 3,231 | 774 | 3,136 | 2,808 | 2,548 | 2,378 | 2,175 |
| Eylea | Median | 783 | 3,166 | 2,789 | 2,444 | 2,191 | 2,090 | ||
| Eylea | Lowest | 710 | 2,908 | 2,456 | 1,964 | 1,572 | 1,257 | ||
| Mirena product family | Number of Estimates | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | ||
| Mirena product family | Highest | 318 | 1,247 | 1,266 | 1,309 | 1,326 | 1,345 | ||
| Mirena product family | Average | 303 | 1,209 | 298 | 1,189 | 1,211 | 1,233 | 1,260 | 1,286 |
| Mirena product family | Median | 299 | 1,197 | 1,215 | 1,244 | 1,254 | 1,270 | ||
| Mirena product family | Lowest | 273 | 1,088 | 1,087 | 1,086 | 1,215 | 1,248 | ||
| Kogenate (incl. Kovaltry, Jivi) | Number of Estimates | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | ||
| Kogenate (incl. Kovaltry, Jivi) | Highest | 186 | 718 | 673 | 744 | 744 | 744 | ||
| Kogenate (incl. Kovaltry, Jivi) | Average | 192 | 738 | 175 | 681 | 641 | 621 | 597 | 572 |
| Kogenate (incl. Kovaltry, Jivi) | Median | 174 | 688 | 653 | 616 | 588 | 559 | ||
| Kogenate (incl. Kovaltry, Jivi) | Lowest | 166 | 642 | 578 | 549 | 522 | 495 | ||
| Adalat | Number of Estimates | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | ||
| Adalat | Highest | 177 | 512 | 507 | 507 | 566 | 557 | ||
| Adalat | Average | 177 | 563 | 144 | 479 | 471 | 470 | 479 | 474 |
| Adalat | Median | 147 | 478 | 478 | 478 | 478 | 477 | ||
| Adalat | Lowest | 115 | 440 | 396 | 400 | 404 | 408 | ||
| Aspirin Cardio | Number of Estimates | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | ||
| Aspirin Cardio | Highest | 187 | 640 | 647 | 775 | 662 | 775 | ||
| Aspirin Cardio | Average | 181 | 626 | 169 | 602 | 610 | 636 | 618 | 648 |
| Aspirin Cardio | Median | 171 | 612 | 624 | 632 | 631 | 657 | ||
| Aspirin Cardio | Lowest | 145 | 502 | 502 | 502 | 492 | 482 | ||
| Adempas | Number of Estimates | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | ||
| Adempas | Highest | 164 | 686 | 728 | 771 | 595 | 548 | ||
| Adempas | Average | 152 | 660 | 153 | 663 | 674 | 554 | 428 | 347 |
| Adempas | Median | 153 | 661 | 673 | 603 | 467 | 388 | ||
| Adempas | Lowest | 143 | 644 | 638 | 330 | 165 | 124 | ||
| Nubeqa | Number of Estimates | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | ||
| Nubeqa | Highest | 330 | 1,500 | 1,840 | 2,617 | 2,878 | 3,132 | ||
| Nubeqa | Average | 178 | 869 | 276 | 1,271 | 1,684 | 2,150 | 2,517 | 2,893 |
| Nubeqa | Median | 272 | 1,304 | 1,722 | 2,221 | 2,686 | 2,921 | ||
| Nubeqa | Lowest | 234 | 1,082 | 1,397 | 1,536 | 1,647 | 2,481 | ||
| Kerendia (Finerenone) | Number of Estimates | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | ||
| Kerendia (Finerenone) | Highest | 103 | 508 | 838 | 1,306 | 1,501 | 1,709 | ||
| Kerendia (Finerenone) | Average | 52 | 270 | 94 | 433 | 642 | 892 | 1,083 | 1,355 |
| Kerendia (Finerenone) | Median | 97 | 420 | 634 | 932 | 1,266 | 1,495 | ||
| Kerendia (Finerenone) | Lowest | 83 | 378 | 479 | 539 | 593 | 533 | ||
| Pharmaceuticals, EBITDA before special items | Number of Estimates | 10 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 8 | ||
| Pharmaceuticals, EBITDA before special items | Highest | 1,292 | 4,884 | 4,766 | 4,646 | 4,449 | 4,806 | ||
| Pharmaceuticals, EBITDA before special items | Average | 1,106 | 1,411 | 1,171 | 4,705 | 4,477 | 4,258 | 4,016 | 4,205 |
| Pharmaceuticals, EBITDA before special items | Median | 1,175 | 4,710 | 4,435 | 4,340 | 4,189 | 4,222 | ||
| Pharmaceuticals, EBITDA before special items | Lowest | 1,011 | 4,519 | 4,201 | 3,477 | 2,743 | 3,672 | ||
| Consumer Health, Sales | Number of Estimates | 10 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | ||
| Consumer Health, Sales | Highest | 1,643 | 6,293 | 6,482 | 6,647 | 6,898 | 7,160 | ||
| Consumer Health, Sales | Average | 1,573 | 6,027 | 1,585 | 6,104 | 6,292 | 6,453 | 6,656 | 6,857 |
| Consumer Health, Sales | Median | 1,600 | 6,086 | 6,295 | 6,428 | 6,633 | 6,807 | ||
| Consumer Health, Sales | Lowest | 1,503 | 5,994 | 6,178 | 6,364 | 6,560 | 6,737 | ||
| Consumer Health, EBITDA before special items | Number of Estimates | 10 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | ||
| Consumer Health, EBITDA before special items | Highest | 389 | 1,481 | 1,574 | 1,691 | 1,760 | 1,830 | ||
| Consumer Health, EBITDA before special items | Average | 379 | 5,189 | 376 | 1,444 | 1,517 | 1,586 | 1,649 | 1,709 |
| Consumer Health, EBITDA before special items | Median | 380 | 1,436 | 1,517 | 1,572 | 1,638 | 1,698 | ||
| Consumer Health, EBITDA before special items | Lowest | 344 | 1,406 | 1,466 | 1,524 | 1,581 | 1,628 | ||
| CropScience, Sales | Number of Estimates | 10 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | ||
| CropScience, Sales | Highest | 8,351 | 23,489 | 24,104 | 24,979 | 25,823 | 26,704 | ||
| CropScience, Sales | Average | 8,351 | 23,270 | 8,086 | 22,922 | 23,601 | 24,250 | 24,832 | 25,522 |
| CropScience, Sales | Median | 8,057 | 23,038 | 23,722 | 24,300 | 24,695 | 25,295 | ||
| CropScience, Sales | Lowest | 7,766 | 21,963 | 22,777 | 23,520 | 24,061 | 24,494 | ||
| CropScience, EBITDA before special items | Number of Estimates | 10 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | ||
| CropScience, EBITDA before special items | Highest | 2,998 | 5,028 | 5,667 | 5,984 | 6,207 | 6,525 | ||
| CropScience, EBITDA before special items | Average | 3,267 | 5,038 | 2,730 | 4,793 | 5,193 | 5,512 | 5,792 | 6,025 |
| CropScience, EBITDA before special items | Median | 2,804 | 4,800 | 5,147 | 5,434 | 5,771 | 5,935 | ||
| CropScience, EBITDA before special items | Lowest | 1,737 | 4,502 | 4,760 | 5,063 | 5,477 | 5,636 | ||
| Reconciliation, Sales | Number of Estimates | 10 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | ||
| Reconciliation, Sales | Highest | 76 | 285 | 285 | 285 | 285 | 286 | ||
| Reconciliation, Sales | Average | 58 | 259 | 60 | 248 | 248 | 253 | 262 | 266 |
| Reconciliation, Sales | Median | 60 | 258 | 254 | 255 | 263 | 269 | ||
| Reconciliation, Sales | Lowest | 47 | 188 | 196 | 196 | 240 | 246 | ||
| Reconciliation, EBITDA before special items | Number of Estimates | 10 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | ||
| Reconciliation, EBITDA before special items | Highest | -80 | -320 | -449 | -454 | -458 | -428 | ||
| Reconciliation, EBITDA before special items | Average | -281 | 68 | -125 | -481 | -501 | -504 | -508 | -515 |
| Reconciliation, EBITDA before special items | Median | -123 | -499 | -500 | -500 | -503 | -515 | ||
| Reconciliation, EBITDA before special items | Lowest | -194 | -530 | -554 | -579 | -604 | -630 |
This document has been issued by Vara Research GmbH for information purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment advice. It is based on estimates and forecasts of various analysts regarding revenues, earnings and business developments of the relevant company. The company did not participate in the compilation of the estimates and it does not endorse them. Such estimates and forecasts cannot be independently verified by reason of the subjective character. Vara Research GmbH gives no guarantee, representation or warranty and is not responsible or liable as to its accuracy and completeness.
