Please note: All numbers are without impairment losses/reversals of impairment losses
*Industry+ = Industry, Consumer and Communities customer segments
** (Revenues-EBITDA)/(Sales volumes Agriculture+ Sales volumes Industry+)
| *** This includes different instruments for shareholder distribution |
| KPI | [EUR m] | Q4 2021 | FY 2021 | Q4 2022 E | FY 2022 E | FY 2023 E | FY 2024 E | FY 2025 E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | Number of Estimates | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | ||
| Revenues | Highest | 1,510.9 | 5,703.0 | 5,005.0 | 4,548.1 | 4,320.6 | ||
| Revenues | Mean | 1,361.7 | 5,553.8 | 4,672.5 | 4,093.6 | 3,766.5 | ||
| Revenues | Consensus (Median) | 1,069.3 | 3,213.1 | 1,419.0 | 5,611.1 | 4,772.9 | 4,242.3 | 3,930.3 |
| Revenues | Lowest | 1,041.9 | 5,234.0 | 3,911.8 | 3,118.0 | 2,868.8 | ||
| EBITDA continued operations (excluding REKS) | Number of Estimates | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | ||
| EBITDA continued operations (excluding REKS) | Highest | 576.2 | 2,440.0 | 1,859.4 | 1,468.0 | 1,032.4 | ||
| EBITDA continued operations (excluding REKS) | Mean | 540.3 | 2,403.9 | 1,503.7 | 991.7 | 762.8 | ||
| EBITDA continued operations (excluding REKS) | Consensus (Median) | 391.8 | 750.0 | 534.6 | 2,398.4 | 1,492.8 | 931.4 | 914.2 |
| EBITDA continued operations (excluding REKS) | Lowest | 517.2 | 2,379.7 | 1,188.2 | 494.5 | 260.2 | ||
| Earnings before operating hedges (EBIT I) without impairment effects (excluding REKS) | Number of Estimates | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | ||
| Earnings before operating hedges (EBIT I) without impairment effects (excluding REKS) | Highest | 513.0 | 2,050.0 | 1,443.7 | 1,049.0 | 608.2 | ||
| Earnings before operating hedges (EBIT I) without impairment effects (excluding REKS) | Mean | 442.9 | 1,979.9 | 1,088.6 | 566.6 | 351.8 | ||
| Earnings before operating hedges (EBIT I) without impairment effects (excluding REKS) | Consensus (Median) | 307.4 | 457.4 | 439.3 | 1,976.3 | 1,028.4 | 488.8 | 478.9 |
| Earnings before operating hedges (EBIT I) without impairment effects (excluding REKS) | Lowest | 398.1 | 1,935.1 | 914.4 | 182.7 | -40.7 | ||
| Financial result | Number of Estimates | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | ||
| Financial result | Highest | 20.7 | 82.0 | 38.0 | 62.0 | 7.9 | ||
| Financial result | Mean | -39.7 | 21.6 | -14.5 | -8.3 | -20.5 | ||
| Financial result | Consensus (Median) | 51.8 | 7.0 | -19.8 | 41.5 | -14.6 | -13.6 | -22.2 |
| Financial result | Lowest | -113.3 | -52.0 | -58.4 | -55.4 | -55.4 | ||
| Earnings before income taxes, adjusted (excluding REKS) | Number of Estimates | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | ||
| Earnings before income taxes, adjusted (excluding REKS) | Highest | 482.5 | 2,080.8 | 1,451.6 | 1,057.0 | 616.1 | ||
| Earnings before income taxes, adjusted (excluding REKS) | Mean | 403.2 | 2,001.5 | 1,074.0 | 558.3 | 331.2 | ||
| Earnings before income taxes, adjusted (excluding REKS) | Consensus (Median) | 359.2 | 464.4 | 408.0 | 2,006.3 | 1,024.7 | 467.8 | 473.9 |
| Earnings before income taxes, adjusted (excluding REKS) | Lowest | 296.5 | 1,894.8 | 892.2 | 160.6 | -62.8 | ||
| Group earnings after taxes from continued operations, adjusted without impairment effects (excluding REKS) | Number of Estimates | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | ||
| Group earnings after taxes from continued operations, adjusted without impairment effects (excluding REKS) | Highest | 316.8 | 1,444.5 | 1,016.1 | 739.9 | 431.3 | ||
| Group earnings after taxes from continued operations, adjusted without impairment effects (excluding REKS) | Mean | 271.8 | 1,399.5 | 757.9 | 394.1 | 263.8 | ||
| Group earnings after taxes from continued operations, adjusted without impairment effects (excluding REKS) | Consensus (Median) | 294.7 | 351.0 | 279.5 | 1,407.2 | 741.4 | 337.2 | 327.0 |
| Group earnings after taxes from continued operations, adjusted without impairment effects (excluding REKS) | Lowest | 197.9 | 1,325.6 | 624.6 | 112.4 | -44.0 | ||
| Average number of shares | Number of Estimates | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | ||
| Average number of shares | Highest | 191.4 | 191.4 | 191.4 | 191.4 | 191.4 | ||
| Average number of shares | Mean | 191.4 | 191.4 | 191.4 | 191.4 | 191.4 | ||
| Average number of shares | Consensus (Median) | 191.4 | 191.4 | 191.4 | 191.4 | 191.4 | 191.4 | 191.4 |
| Average number of shares | Lowest | 191.4 | 191.4 | 191.4 | 191.4 | 191.4 | ||
| EPS from continued operations, adjusted (in Euro) without impairment effects (excluding REKS) | Number of Estimates | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | ||
| EPS from continued operations, adjusted (in Euro) without impairment effects (excluding REKS) | Highest | 1.66 | 7.55 | 5.31 | 3.87 | 2.25 | ||
| EPS from continued operations, adjusted (in Euro) without impairment effects (excluding REKS) | Mean | 1.42 | 7.31 | 3.96 | 2.06 | 1.38 | ||
| EPS from continued operations, adjusted (in Euro) without impairment effects (excluding REKS) | Consensus (Median) | 1.54 | 1.83 | 1.46 | 7.35 | 3.87 | 1.76 | 1.71 |
| EPS from continued operations, adjusted (in Euro) without impairment effects (excluding REKS) | Lowest | 1.03 | 6.93 | 3.26 | 0.59 | -0.23 | ||
| Tax rate (%) | Number of Estimates | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | ||
| Tax rate (%) | Highest | 43.1 | 32.6 | 31.0 | 31.0 | 31.0 | ||
| Tax rate (%) | Mean | 32.3 | 30.1 | 29.3 | 29.3 | 8.3 | ||
| Tax rate (%) | Consensus (Median) | 18.0 | 24.4 | 32.5 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| Tax rate (%) | Lowest | 23.9 | 28.3 | 25.0 | 25.0 | -74.6 | ||
| Distribution to shareholders per share (in Euro)*** | Number of Estimates | - | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | ||
| Distribution to shareholders per share (in Euro)*** | Highest | - | 2.00 | 2.50 | 1.90 | 1.10 | ||
| Distribution to shareholders per share (in Euro)*** | Mean | - | 1.35 | 1.26 | 0.95 | 0.67 | ||
| Distribution to shareholders per share (in Euro)*** | Consensus (Median) | - | 0.20 | - | 1.50 | 1.10 | 0.75 | 0.51 |
| Distribution to shareholders per share (in Euro)*** | Lowest | - | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.40 | ||
| CapEx continued operations | Number of Estimates | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | ||
| CapEx continued operations | Highest | 214.5 | 455.0 | 594.8 | 600.0 | 650.0 | ||
| CapEx continued operations | Mean | 172.8 | 413.3 | 504.8 | 507.2 | 502.5 | ||
| CapEx continued operations | Consensus (Median) | 111.7 | 334.3 | 169.4 | 409.9 | 521.5 | 519.4 | 493.0 |
| CapEx continued operations | Lowest | 149.3 | 389.8 | 390.7 | 374.2 | 344.3 | ||
| Free Cash Flow, adjusted continued operations (excluding REKS) | Number of Estimates | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | ||
| Free Cash Flow, adjusted continued operations (excluding REKS) | Highest | 192.9 | 1,007.0 | 959.3 | 831.8 | 158.5 | ||
| Free Cash Flow, adjusted continued operations (excluding REKS) | Mean | 128.4 | 942.5 | 852.5 | 169.9 | -107.3 | ||
| Free Cash Flow, adjusted continued operations (excluding REKS) | Consensus (Median) | 156.1 | 4.1 | 133.7 | 947.8 | 820.0 | 186.7 | -32.3 |
| Free Cash Flow, adjusted continued operations (excluding REKS) | Lowest | 53.4 | 867.5 | 770.0 | -484.0 | -523.0 | ||
| Net financial debt (+) / Net financial asset position (-) | Number of Estimates | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||
| Net financial debt (+) / Net financial asset position (-) | Highest | -16 | -16 | 419 | 328 | 278 | ||
| Net financial debt (+) / Net financial asset position (-) | Mean | -398 | -398 | -626 | -789 | -379 | ||
| Net financial debt (+) / Net financial asset position (-) | Consensus (Median) | 606 | 606 | -464 | -464 | -910 | -1,222 | -379 |
| Net financial debt (+) / Net financial asset position (-) | Lowest | -647 | -647 | -1,104 | -1,473 | -1,036 | ||
| Agriculture, Revenues | Number of Estimates | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | ||
| Agriculture, Revenues | Highest | 1,179.9 | 4,531.0 | 3,945.2 | 3,497.7 | 3,057.7 | ||
| Agriculture, Revenues | Mean | 1,086.5 | 4,437.6 | 3,632.2 | 2,969.9 | 2,718.5 | ||
| Agriculture, Revenues | Consensus (Median) | 800.3 | 2,272.1 | 1,108.7 | 4,459.8 | 3,711.8 | 2,875.3 | 2,884.5 |
| Agriculture, Revenues | Lowest | 913.9 | 4,265.0 | 3,069.7 | 2,275.9 | 2,026.6 | ||
| Agriculture, Sales volume (in million tons) | Number of Estimates | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | ||
| Agriculture, Sales volume (in million tons) | Highest | 2.04 | 7.26 | 7.71 | 7.91 | 8.11 | ||
| Agriculture, Sales volume (in million tons) | Mean | 1.88 | 7.10 | 7.53 | 7.73 | 7.86 | ||
| Agriculture, Sales volume (in million tons) | Consensus (Median) | 1.96 | 7.62 | 1.87 | 7.10 | 7.51 | 7.72 | 7.82 |
| Agriculture, Sales volume (in million tons) | Lowest | 1.75 | 6.97 | 7.37 | 7.56 | 7.68 | ||
| Industry+*, Revenues | Number of Estimates | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | ||
| Industry+*, Revenues | Highest | 339.9 | 1,180.9 | 1,185.9 | 1,213.9 | 1,262.9 | ||
| Industry+*, Revenues | Mean | 275.2 | 1,116.2 | 1,039.8 | 1,034.4 | 1,047.2 | ||
| Industry+*, Revenues | Consensus (Median) | 269.0 | 941.0 | 302.3 | 1,143.3 | 1,064.4 | 999.5 | 1,006.1 |
| Industry+*, Revenues | Lowest | 128.0 | 969.0 | 838.1 | 838.1 | 838.1 | ||
| Industry+*, Sales volume (in million tons) | Number of Estimates | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | ||
| Industry+*, Sales volume (in million tons) | Highest | 1.93 | 6.91 | 7.05 | 7.19 | 7.33 | ||
| Industry+*, Sales volume (in million tons) | Mean | 1.86 | 6.84 | 6.75 | 6.80 | 6.85 | ||
| Industry+*, Sales volume (in million tons) | Consensus (Median) | 2.22 | 7.91 | 1.89 | 6.86 | 6.74 | 6.78 | 6.80 |
| Industry+*, Sales volume (in million tons) | Lowest | 1.74 | 6.72 | 6.46 | 6.46 | 6.46 | ||
| -thereof: de-icing salt sales volume (in million tons) | Number of Estimates | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | ||
| -thereof: de-icing salt sales volume (in million tons) | Highest | 0.80 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.22 | 2.24 | ||
| -thereof: de-icing salt sales volume (in million tons) | Mean | 0.67 | 2.07 | 1.95 | 1.97 | 1.99 | ||
| -thereof: de-icing salt sales volume (in million tons) | Consensus (Median) | 0.89 | 3.18 | 0.67 | 2.07 | 1.97 | 2.01 | 2.05 |
| -thereof: de-icing salt sales volume (in million tons) | Lowest | 0.53 | 1.93 | 1.67 | 1.67 | 1.67 | ||
| MOP gran spot price (Brazil - cfr -US$), historic figures = fmb | Number of Estimates | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| MOP gran spot price (Brazil - cfr -US$), historic figures = fmb | Highest | 569.6 | 851.5 | 615.0 | 437.5 | 352.0 | ||
| MOP gran spot price (Brazil - cfr -US$), historic figures = fmb | Mean | 569.6 | 851.5 | 579.2 | 437.5 | 352.0 | ||
| MOP gran spot price (Brazil - cfr -US$), historic figures = fmb | Consensus (Median) | 792.9 | 543.1 | 569.6 | 851.5 | 579.2 | 437.5 | 352.0 |
| MOP gran spot price (Brazil - cfr -US$), historic figures = fmb | Lowest | 569.6 | 851.5 | 543.4 | 437.5 | 352.0 | ||
| Ø price of the K+S Agriculture Product Portfolio (in Euro per ton) | Number of Estimates | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||
| Ø price of the K+S Agriculture Product Portfolio (in Euro per ton) | Highest | 624.9 | 637.7 | 516.0 | 442.2 | 398.1 | ||
| Ø price of the K+S Agriculture Product Portfolio (in Euro per ton) | Mean | 569.7 | 622.5 | 479.9 | 386.5 | 347.9 | ||
| Ø price of the K+S Agriculture Product Portfolio (in Euro per ton) | Consensus (Median) | 408.3 | 298.2 | 597.0 | 629.7 | 478.6 | 372.5 | 370.9 |
| Ø price of the K+S Agriculture Product Portfolio (in Euro per ton) | Lowest | 511.6 | 605.3 | 426.1 | 305.7 | 266.3 | ||
| Cash Unit Costs K+S Group (in Euro per ton** | Number of Estimates | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | ||
| Cash Unit Costs K+S Group (in Euro per ton** | Highest | 251.2 | 234.7 | 264.9 | 250.0 | 245.0 | ||
| Cash Unit Costs K+S Group (in Euro per ton** | Mean | 214.6 | 224.9 | 236.8 | 229.1 | 227.2 | ||
| Cash Unit Costs K+S Group (in Euro per ton** | Consensus (Median) | 162.1 | 158.6 | 237.5 | 230.6 | 234.2 | 229.5 | 228.5 |
| Cash Unit Costs K+S Group (in Euro per ton** | Lowest | 132.3 | 203.6 | 214.0 | 207.5 | 206.9 | ||
| Ø USD/EUR exchange rate, spot | Number of Estimates | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | ||
| Ø USD/EUR exchange rate, spot | Highest | 1.02 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.17 | 1.24 | ||
| Ø USD/EUR exchange rate, spot | Mean | 1.01 | 1.07 | 1.06 | 1.09 | 1.12 | ||
| Ø USD/EUR exchange rate, spot | Consensus (Median) | 1.14 | 1.18 | 1.01 | 1.07 | 1.07 | 1.08 | 1.08 |
| Ø USD/EUR exchange rate, spot | Lowest | 1.00 | 1.06 | 1.03 | 1.03 | 1.03 |
This document has been issued by Vara Research GmbH for information purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment advice. It is based on estimates and forecasts of various analysts regarding revenues, earnings and business developments of the relevant company. The company did not participate in the compilation of the estimates and it does not endorse them. Such estimates and forecasts cannot be independently verified by reason of the subjective character. Vara Research GmbH gives no guarantee, representation or warranty and is not responsible or liable as to its accuracy and completeness.
