| KPI | [EUR m] | Q4 2018 | FY 2018 | Q4 2019 E | FY 2019 E | FY 2020 E | FY 2021 E | FY 2022 E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | Number of Estimates | 17 | 17 | 14 | 12 | 6 | ||
| Revenues | Highest | 1,159.1 | 4,206.0 | 4,322.5 | 4,567.1 | 4,788.3 | ||
| Revenues | Mean | 1,079.4 | 4,126.3 | 4,184.5 | 4,383.7 | 4,586.9 | ||
| Revenues | Consensus (Median) | 1,217.3 | 4,039.1 | 1,097.1 | 4,144.0 | 4,189.9 | 4,364.0 | 4,648.2 |
| Revenues | Lowest | 978.9 | 4,025.8 | 4,059.1 | 4,181.0 | 4,308.0 | ||
| EBITDA | Number of Estimates | 17 | 17 | 14 | 12 | 6 | ||
| EBITDA | Highest | 177.4 | 658.0 | 738.6 | 841.0 | 969.4 | ||
| EBITDA | Mean | 162.0 | 642.6 | 649.4 | 770.9 | 883.6 | ||
| EBITDA | Consensus (Median) | 228.0 | 606.3 | 165.5 | 646.1 | 650.4 | 777.6 | 866.1 |
| EBITDA | Lowest | 138.3 | 618.9 | 523.5 | 667.4 | 837.7 | ||
| EBIT I | Number of Estimates | 16 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 5 | ||
| EBIT I | Highest | 83.3 | 254.0 | 360.6 | 453.0 | 530.8 | ||
| EBIT I | Mean | 64.9 | 235.6 | 236.3 | 357.3 | 454.5 | ||
| EBIT I | Consensus (Median) | 124.9 | 227.2 | 67.1 | 237.8 | 230.2 | 367.0 | 431.9 |
| EBIT I | Lowest | 34.5 | 205.2 | 94.3 | 255.9 | 395.0 | ||
| Financial result | Number of Estimates | 14 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 4 | ||
| Financial result | Highest | -35.0 | -107.0 | -103.3 | -102.0 | -118.2 | ||
| Financial result | Mean | -39.7 | -111.7 | -122.8 | -128.1 | -141.4 | ||
| Financial result | Consensus (Median) | -30.2 | -112.2 | -38.8 | -110.8 | -118.1 | -119.7 | -141.9 |
| Financial result | Lowest | -45.1 | -117.1 | -163.6 | -163.7 | -163.7 | ||
| Earnings before income taxes, adjusted | Number of Estimates | 14 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 4 | ||
| Earnings before income taxes, adjusted | Highest | 48.3 | 147.0 | 217.0 | 338.0 | 412.6 | ||
| Earnings before income taxes, adjusted | Mean | 25.1 | 123.8 | 103.2 | 231.3 | 304.1 | ||
| Earnings before income taxes, adjusted | Consensus (Median) | 94.7 | 115.0 | 27.1 | 125.8 | 113.1 | 239.6 | 285.9 |
| Earnings before income taxes, adjusted | Lowest | -10.4 | 88.3 | -33.6 | 103.3 | 232.1 | ||
| Group earnings after taxes, adjusted | Number of Estimates | 12 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 4 | ||
| Group earnings after taxes, adjusted | Highest | 29.3 | 97.8 | 126.4 | 189.7 | 288.8 | ||
| Group earnings after taxes, adjusted | Mean | 15.6 | 83.9 | 58.7 | 147.7 | 216.9 | ||
| Group earnings after taxes, adjusted | Consensus (Median) | 71.8 | 85.4 | 17.3 | 85.8 | 67.9 | 151.3 | 207.3 |
| Group earnings after taxes, adjusted | Lowest | -6.7 | 61.8 | -23.5 | 71.3 | 164.2 | ||
| Average number of shares | Number of Estimates | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 5 | ||
| Average number of shares | Highest | 191.4 | 191.4 | 191.4 | 191.4 | 191.4 | ||
| Average number of shares | Mean | 191.4 | 191.4 | 191.4 | 191.4 | 191.4 | ||
| Average number of shares | Consensus (Median) | 191.4 | 191.4 | 191.4 | 191.4 | 191.4 | 191.4 | 191.4 |
| Average number of shares | Lowest | 191.4 | 191.4 | 191.4 | 191.4 | 191.4 | ||
| EPS from continued operations, adjusted (in Euro) | Number of Estimates | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 5 | ||
| EPS from continued operations, adjusted (in Euro) | Highest | 0.15 | 0.51 | 0.66 | 1.01 | 1.51 | ||
| EPS from continued operations, adjusted (in Euro) | Mean | 0.09 | 0.44 | 0.32 | 0.80 | 1.19 | ||
| EPS from continued operations, adjusted (in Euro) | Consensus (Median) | 0.38 | 0.45 | 0.10 | 0.45 | 0.41 | 0.82 | 1.19 |
| EPS from continued operations, adjusted (in Euro) | Lowest | -0.03 | 0.32 | -0.12 | 0.37 | 0.86 | ||
| Tax rate (%) | Number of Estimates | 11 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 4 | ||
| Tax rate (%) | Highest | 52.0 | 32.7 | 30.1 | 31.0 | 30.0 | ||
| Tax rate (%) | Mean | 30.6 | 30.2 | 29.3 | 29.5 | 28.6 | ||
| Tax rate (%) | Consensus (Median) | 24.2 | 25.7 | 28.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 28.6 |
| Tax rate (%) | Lowest | 23.4 | 29.4 | 27.1 | 27.0 | 27.0 | ||
| DPS (in Euro) | Number of Estimates | - | 17 | 14 | 12 | 6 | ||
| DPS (in Euro) | Highest | - | 0.45 | 0.47 | 0.45 | 0.72 | ||
| DPS (in Euro) | Mean | - | 0.21 | 0.20 | 0.33 | 0.51 | ||
| DPS (in Euro) | Consensus (Median) | - | 0.25 | - | 0.21 | 0.22 | 0.32 | 0.49 |
| DPS (in Euro) | Lowest | - | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.34 | ||
| CapEx | Number of Estimates | 15 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 5 | ||
| CapEx | Highest | 241.3 | 551.3 | 625.0 | 575.0 | 575.0 | ||
| CapEx | Mean | 226.2 | 537.0 | 553.5 | 522.8 | 528.2 | ||
| CapEx | Consensus (Median) | 165.1 | 443.2 | 234.8 | 547.1 | 554.8 | 525.5 | 538.0 |
| CapEx | Lowest | 187.5 | 497.5 | 350.0 | 450.0 | 470.0 | ||
| Free Cash Flow, adjusted | Number of Estimates | 13 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 5 | ||
| Free Cash Flow, adjusted | Highest | -107.8 | 95.6 | 101.2 | 158.0 | 135.3 | ||
| Free Cash Flow, adjusted | Mean | -169.7 | 33.7 | -21.1 | 44.4 | 83.9 | ||
| Free Cash Flow, adjusted | Consensus (Median) | -146.7 | -206.3 | -148.9 | 54.5 | -18.2 | 47.3 | 80.9 |
| Free Cash Flow, adjusted | Lowest | -357.0 | -153.6 | -142.6 | -37.3 | -1.3 | ||
| Net Debt (Net financial debt + provisions) | Number of Estimates | - | 13 | 9 | 8 | 4 | ||
| Net Debt (Net financial debt + provisions) | Highest | - | 4,890.5 | 5,011.6 | 5,004.5 | 4,984.0 | ||
| Net Debt (Net financial debt + provisions) | Mean | - | 4,567.3 | 4,666.5 | 4,683.1 | 4,800.4 | ||
| Net Debt (Net financial debt + provisions) | Consensus (Median) | - | 4,443.6 | - | 4,572.9 | 4,665.7 | 4,722.6 | 4,813.8 |
| Net Debt (Net financial debt + provisions) | Lowest | - | 4,313.5 | 4,330.0 | 4,099.1 | 4,590.0 | ||
| Europe+, Revenues | Number of Estimates | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 4 | ||
| Europe+, Revenues | Highest | 729.3 | 2,669.0 | 2,760.2 | 2,991.2 | 3,157.7 | ||
| Europe+, Revenues | Mean | 673.8 | 2,613.5 | 2,658.6 | 2,783.8 | 2,972.0 | ||
| Europe+, Revenues | Consensus (Median) | 783.3 | 2,585.2 | 693.0 | 2,632.7 | 2,697.1 | 2,730.7 | 2,966.0 |
| Europe+, Revenues | Lowest | 576.0 | 2,515.7 | 2,432.2 | 2,607.2 | 2,798.2 | ||
| Europe+, EBITDA | Number of Estimates | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 4 | ||
| Europe+, EBITDA | Highest | 119.9 | 492.7 | 517.8 | 645.7 | 770.1 | ||
| Europe+, EBITDA | Mean | 104.8 | 477.6 | 458.8 | 569.4 | 669.6 | ||
| Europe+, EBITDA | Consensus (Median) | 165.7 | 443.3 | 109.1 | 481.9 | 466.0 | 576.5 | 647.1 |
| Europe+, EBITDA | Lowest | 72.7 | 445.5 | 366.1 | 475.6 | 614.1 | ||
| Americas, Revenues | Number of Estimates | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 4 | ||
| Americas, Revenues | Highest | 470.0 | 1,575.0 | 1,624.3 | 1,657.6 | 1,724.1 | ||
| Americas, Revenues | Mean | 411.9 | 1,516.9 | 1,537.8 | 1,616.9 | 1,663.8 | ||
| Americas, Revenues | Consensus (Median) | 433.5 | 1,451.0 | 411.1 | 1,516.1 | 1,542.1 | 1,628.6 | 1,656.6 |
| Americas, Revenues | Lowest | 359.5 | 1,464.5 | 1,386.4 | 1,553.6 | 1,617.8 | ||
| Americas, EBITDA | Number of Estimates | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 4 | ||
| Americas, EBITDA | Highest | 83.7 | 230.2 | 285.7 | 298.3 | 311.2 | ||
| Americas, EBITDA | Mean | 74.3 | 220.8 | 234.6 | 251.3 | 269.7 | ||
| Americas, EBITDA | Consensus (Median) | 74.9 | 221.8 | 78.6 | 225.1 | 237.4 | 245.3 | 273.9 |
| Americas, EBITDA | Lowest | 53.5 | 200.0 | 211.7 | 211.1 | 219.9 | ||
| Reconciliation, Revenues | Number of Estimates | 14 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 5 | ||
| Reconciliation, Revenues | Highest | 0.8 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | ||
| Reconciliation, Revenues | Mean | -1.5 | 0.7 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -3.4 | ||
| Reconciliation, Revenues | Consensus (Median) | 0.5 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Reconciliation, Revenues | Lowest | -23.4 | -21.2 | -22.0 | -22.1 | -23.5 | ||
| Reconciliation, EBITDA | Number of Estimates | 14 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 5 | ||
| Reconciliation, EBITDA | Highest | -10.0 | -48.7 | -48.7 | -49.7 | -55.1 | ||
| Reconciliation, EBITDA | Mean | -16.2 | -54.9 | -57.4 | -56.6 | -59.2 | ||
| Reconciliation, EBITDA | Consensus (Median) | -12.6 | -58.8 | -15.2 | -53.9 | -57.2 | -56.0 | -60.0 |
| Reconciliation, EBITDA | Lowest | -26.5 | -65.2 | -65.0 | -65.0 | -65.0 | ||
| Agriculture, Revenues | Number of Estimates | 14 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 5 | ||
| Agriculture, Revenues | Highest | 450.6 | 1,776.7 | 1,816.6 | 1,996.4 | 2,136.1 | ||
| Agriculture, Revenues | Mean | 422.9 | 1,749.0 | 1,755.1 | 1,879.5 | 2,037.8 | ||
| Agriculture, Revenues | Consensus (Median) | 555.1 | 1,741.3 | 429.6 | 1,755.7 | 1,763.5 | 1,874.1 | 2,034.8 |
| Agriculture, Revenues | Lowest | 369.5 | 1,695.6 | 1,683.8 | 1,801.2 | 1,903.8 | ||
| Agriculture, EBITDA | Number of Estimates | 14 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 5 | ||
| Agriculture, EBITDA | Highest | 79.3 | 344.9 | 376.2 | 463.4 | 581.9 | ||
| Agriculture, EBITDA | Mean | 56.2 | 321.8 | 295.2 | 399.0 | 501.5 | ||
| Agriculture, EBITDA | Consensus (Median) | 123.0 | 274.5 | 59.5 | 325.2 | 315.2 | 421.8 | 503.9 |
| Agriculture, EBITDA | Lowest | 9.4 | 275.0 | 131.0 | 271.7 | 447.6 | ||
| Agriculture, Sales volume (in million tons) | Number of Estimates | 13 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 5 | ||
| Agriculture, Sales volume (in million tons) | Highest | 1.79 | 6.50 | 7.61 | 7.67 | 8.30 | ||
| Agriculture, Sales volume (in million tons) | Mean | 1.64 | 6.41 | 7.02 | 7.38 | 7.85 | ||
| Agriculture, Sales volume (in million tons) | Consensus (Median) | 2.07 | 6.85 | 1.63 | 6.40 | 7.01 | 7.33 | 7.80 |
| Agriculture, Sales volume (in million tons) | Lowest | 1.55 | 6.32 | 6.68 | 7.20 | 7.52 | ||
| Industry, Revenues | Number of Estimates | 14 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 5 | ||
| Industry, Revenues | Highest | 325.1 | 1,182.3 | 1,224.0 | 1,277.9 | 1,335.3 | ||
| Industry, Revenues | Mean | 302.7 | 1,159.9 | 1,177.9 | 1,221.2 | 1,277.5 | ||
| Industry, Revenues | Consensus (Median) | 303.8 | 1,132.8 | 308.8 | 1,166.0 | 1,182.4 | 1,210.7 | 1,279.2 |
| Industry, Revenues | Lowest | 245.9 | 1,103.1 | 1,090.6 | 1,190.0 | 1,223.1 | ||
| Industry, EBITDA | Number of Estimates | 14 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 5 | ||
| Industry, EBITDA | Highest | 83.3 | 242.3 | 245.3 | 274.2 | 261.3 | ||
| Industry, EBITDA | Mean | 57.0 | 216.1 | 225.0 | 235.9 | 241.6 | ||
| Industry, EBITDA | Consensus (Median) | 54.4 | 225.5 | 54.8 | 213.9 | 222.1 | 228.5 | 234.1 |
| Industry, EBITDA | Lowest | 50.0 | 209.1 | 209.0 | 221.1 | 229.1 | ||
| Industry, Sales volume (in million tons)* | Number of Estimates | 11 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 4 | ||
| Industry, Sales volume (in million tons)* | Highest | 2.94 | 10.51 | 10.77 | 11.18 | 11.51 | ||
| Industry, Sales volume (in million tons)* | Mean | 2.78 | 10.35 | 10.47 | 10.70 | 11.09 | ||
| Industry, Sales volume (in million tons)* | Consensus (Median) | 2.74 | 10.30 | 2.75 | 10.32 | 10.43 | 10.66 | 11.06 |
| Industry, Sales volume (in million tons)* | Lowest | 2.70 | 10.27 | 10.20 | 10.30 | 10.74 | ||
| Consumer, Revenues | Number of Estimates | 14 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 5 | ||
| Consumer, Revenues | Highest | 152.4 | 498.2 | 528.9 | 570.0 | 602.8 | ||
| Consumer, Revenues | Mean | 137.2 | 483.0 | 497.9 | 510.8 | 535.5 | ||
| Consumer, Revenues | Consensus (Median) | 132.4 | 453.7 | 136.9 | 482.7 | 494.0 | 504.4 | 515.6 |
| Consumer, Revenues | Lowest | 128.4 | 474.2 | 486.3 | 493.2 | 498.1 | ||
| Consumer, EBITDA | Number of Estimates | 14 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 5 | ||
| Consumer, EBITDA | Highest | 19.4 | 58.7 | 66.5 | 72.9 | 76.6 | ||
| Consumer, EBITDA | Mean | 16.0 | 55.3 | 57.3 | 59.1 | 65.3 | ||
| Consumer, EBITDA | Consensus (Median) | 15.1 | 43.3 | 16.9 | 56.2 | 58.3 | 59.9 | 62.9 |
| Consumer, EBITDA | Lowest | 5.6 | 44.8 | 36.1 | 35.4 | 60.3 | ||
| Consumer, Sales volume (in million tons) | Number of Estimates | 12 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 4 | ||
| Consumer, Sales volume (in million tons) | Highest | 0.53 | 1.86 | 1.91 | 1.95 | 2.01 | ||
| Consumer, Sales volume (in million tons) | Mean | 0.51 | 1.81 | 1.85 | 1.87 | 1.91 | ||
| Consumer, Sales volume (in million tons) | Consensus (Median) | 0.50 | 1.81 | 0.50 | 1.80 | 1.84 | 1.87 | 1.90 |
| Consumer, Sales volume (in million tons) | Lowest | 0.50 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.81 | 1.84 | ||
| Communities, Revenues | Number of Estimates | 14 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 5 | ||
| Communities, Revenues | Highest | 277.4 | 792.9 | 818.2 | 831.7 | 865.2 | ||
| Communities, Revenues | Mean | 212.4 | 728.1 | 758.0 | 776.5 | 784.7 | ||
| Communities, Revenues | Consensus (Median) | 225.5 | 708.4 | 212.7 | 728.5 | 758.0 | 776.3 | 799.2 |
| Communities, Revenues | Lowest | 125.6 | 641.3 | 708.8 | 693.8 | 660.0 | ||
| Communities, EBITDA | Number of Estimates | 14 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 5 | ||
| Communities, EBITDA | Highest | 79.4 | 134.8 | 169.6 | 141.0 | 143.8 | ||
| Communities, EBITDA | Mean | 47.9 | 103.2 | 120.5 | 124.1 | 127.1 | ||
| Communities, EBITDA | Consensus (Median) | 48.1 | 121.8 | 47.4 | 102.7 | 112.9 | 123.6 | 133.8 |
| Communities, EBITDA | Lowest | 35.1 | 90.4 | 103.8 | 107.9 | 91.8 | ||
| Communities, Sales volume (in million tons) | Number of Estimates | 12 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 4 | ||
| Communities, Sales volume (in million tons) | Highest | 4.10 | 13.34 | 13.44 | 14.11 | 14.53 | ||
| Communities, Sales volume (in million tons) | Mean | 3.65 | 12.89 | 13.02 | 13.16 | 13.37 | ||
| Communities, Sales volume (in million tons) | Consensus (Median) | 4.00 | 13.32 | 3.64 | 12.88 | 13.10 | 13.27 | 13.47 |
| Communities, Sales volume (in million tons) | Lowest | 3.26 | 12.50 | 12.26 | 12.00 | 12.00 | ||
| MOP gran spot price (Brazil - cfr -US$), historic figures = fmb | Number of Estimates | 4 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 3 | ||
| MOP gran spot price (Brazil - cfr -US$), historic figures = fmb | Highest | 335.0 | 342.0 | 320.0 | 326.0 | 305.0 | ||
| MOP gran spot price (Brazil - cfr -US$), historic figures = fmb | Mean | 308.8 | 326.0 | 286.1 | 298.8 | 299.0 | ||
| MOP gran spot price (Brazil - cfr -US$), historic figures = fmb | Consensus (Median) | 353.8 | 312.4 | 302.5 | 330.0 | 287.9 | 295.9 | 300.0 |
| MOP gran spot price (Brazil - cfr -US$), historic figures = fmb | Lowest | 295.0 | 290.0 | 256.3 | 285.0 | 291.9 | ||
| Ø price of the K+S Agriculture Product Portfolio (in Euro per ton) | Number of Estimates | 13 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 5 | ||
| Ø price of the K+S Agriculture Product Portfolio (in Euro per ton) | Highest | 275.1 | 277.3 | 259.9 | 260.5 | 268.4 | ||
| Ø price of the K+S Agriculture Product Portfolio (in Euro per ton) | Mean | 259.1 | 273.2 | 249.1 | 254.7 | 259.5 | ||
| Ø price of the K+S Agriculture Product Portfolio (in Euro per ton) | Consensus (Median) | 268.2 | 254.2 | 266.2 | 275.0 | 251.1 | 254.6 | 257.9 |
| Ø price of the K+S Agriculture Product Portfolio (in Euro per ton) | Lowest | 226.7 | 264.5 | 224.4 | 243.4 | 253.0 | ||
| Cash Unit Costs Agriculture (in Euro per ton) | Number of Estimates | 13 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 5 | ||
| Cash Unit Costs Agriculture (in Euro per ton) | Highest | 260.6 | 232.5 | 227.5 | 222.5 | 198.1 | ||
| Cash Unit Costs Agriculture (in Euro per ton) | Mean | 223.9 | 222.8 | 207.2 | 200.7 | 195.7 | ||
| Cash Unit Costs Agriculture (in Euro per ton) | Consensus (Median) | 208.7 | 214.1 | 229.1 | 223.9 | 207.1 | 199.2 | 195.1 |
| Cash Unit Costs Agriculture (in Euro per ton) | Lowest | 181.9 | 211.7 | 197.2 | 191.5 | 193.5 | ||
| Ø USD/EUR exchange rate, spot | Number of Estimates | 7 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 4 | ||
| Ø USD/EUR exchange rate, spot | Highest | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.19 | 1.12 | ||
| Ø USD/EUR exchange rate, spot | Mean | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.13 | 1.13 | 1.12 | ||
| Ø USD/EUR exchange rate, spot | Consensus (Median) | 1.14 | 1.18 | 1.11 | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.12 |
| Ø USD/EUR exchange rate, spot | Lowest | 1.11 | 1.11 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.11 |
This document has been issued by Vara Research GmbH for information purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment advice. It is based on estimates and forecasts of various analysts regarding revenues, earnings and business developments of the relevant company. The company did not participate in the compilation of the estimates and it does not endorse them. Such estimates and forecasts cannot be independently verified by reason of the subjective character. Vara Research GmbH gives no guarantee, representation or warranty and is not responsible or liable as to its accuracy and completeness.
