Please note: All numbers are without impairment losses/reversals of impairment losses
*Industry+ = Industry, Consumer and Communities customer segments
** (Revenues-EBITDA)/(Sales volumes Agriculture+ Sales volumes Industry+)
| *** This includes different instruments for shareholder distribution (2022: dividend of €1.00 per share and additional share buyback in the equivalent of around €1.00 per share) |
| KPI | [EUR m] | Q3 2022 | Q4 2022 | FY 2022 | Q3 2023 E | Q4 2023 E | FY 2023 E | FY 2024 E | FY 2025 E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | Number of Estimates | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | |||
| Revenues | Highest | 914.1 | 1,145.0 | 4,029.6 | 4,009.0 | 3,985.1 | |||
| Revenues | Mean | 856.8 | 1,019.7 | 3,850.8 | 3,706.5 | 3,733.7 | |||
| Revenues | Consensus (Median) | 1,469.9 | 1,484.5 | 5,676.6 | 867.0 | 1,039.9 | 3,911.5 | 3,744.8 | 3,810.6 |
| Revenues | Lowest | 779.7 | 786.0 | 3,546.6 | 3,415.2 | 3,462.4 | |||
| EBITDA | Number of Estimates | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | |||
| EBITDA | Highest | 60.1 | 188.8 | 721.0 | 729.6 | 847.4 | |||
| EBITDA | Mean | 50.7 | 167.8 | 694.3 | 673.7 | 706.4 | |||
| EBITDA | Consensus (Median) | 633.2 | 559.2 | 2,422.9 | 52.7 | 168.9 | 695.8 | 680.0 | 705.0 |
| EBITDA | Lowest | 38.9 | 141.3 | 658.3 | 580.2 | 513.8 | |||
| Earnings before operating hedges (EBIT I) without impairment effects | Number of Estimates | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | |||
| Earnings before operating hedges (EBIT I) without impairment effects | Highest | -43.8 | 74.2 | 298.2 | 292.0 | 414.3 | |||
| Earnings before operating hedges (EBIT I) without impairment effects | Mean | -58.4 | 51.0 | 255.0 | 225.5 | 252.3 | |||
| Earnings before operating hedges (EBIT I) without impairment effects | Consensus (Median) | 524.2 | 434.2 | 1,979.1 | -57.1 | 54.5 | 254.5 | 231.9 | 248.5 |
| Earnings before operating hedges (EBIT I) without impairment effects | Lowest | -70.6 | 26.5 | 218.8 | 107.2 | 37.1 | |||
| Financial result | Number of Estimates | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | |||
| Financial result | Highest | 5.0 | 20.0 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 5.0 | |||
| Financial result | Mean | -2.3 | 1.8 | -24.6 | -24.3 | -27.6 | |||
| Financial result | Consensus (Median) | 15.1 | 73.8 | 135.1 | -2.4 | -2.6 | -22.1 | -24.7 | -33.7 |
| Financial result | Lowest | -9.2 | -9.2 | -70.0 | -55.0 | -55.0 | |||
| Earnings before income taxes, adjusted | Number of Estimates | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | |||
| Earnings before income taxes, adjusted | Highest | -44.0 | 81.2 | 280.2 | 268.8 | 376.4 | |||
| Earnings before income taxes, adjusted | Mean | -60.8 | 52.7 | 230.3 | 201.1 | 224.7 | |||
| Earnings before income taxes, adjusted | Consensus (Median) | 399.3 | 771.7 | 2,134.7 | -63.1 | 51.9 | 238.1 | 207.2 | 205.1 |
| Earnings before income taxes, adjusted | Lowest | -79.8 | 24.2 | 148.8 | 90.7 | 16.7 | |||
| Group earnings after taxes, adjusted without impairment effects | Number of Estimates | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | |||
| Group earnings after taxes, adjusted without impairment effects | Highest | -30.7 | 56.8 | 198.8 | 188.1 | 273.7 | |||
| Group earnings after taxes, adjusted without impairment effects | Mean | -43.0 | 37.8 | 164.1 | 143.3 | 159.6 | |||
| Group earnings after taxes, adjusted without impairment effects | Consensus (Median) | 378.7 | 366.3 | 1,494.0 | -44.1 | 41.0 | 169.6 | 152.8 | 149.7 |
| Group earnings after taxes, adjusted without impairment effects | Lowest | -55.9 | 16.9 | 106.4 | 66.7 | 12.0 | |||
| Average number of shares | Number of Estimates | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | |||
| Average number of shares | Highest | 191.4 | 191.4 | 189.7 | 186.1 | 185.3 | |||
| Average number of shares | Mean | 187.9 | 184.5 | 188.4 | 182.5 | 180.8 | |||
| Average number of shares | Consensus (Median) | 191.4 | 191.4 | 191.4 | 187.0 | 183.5 | 188.3 | 182.5 | 181.7 |
| Average number of shares | Lowest | 186.0 | 179.2 | 186.7 | 177.4 | 172.4 | |||
| EPS, adjusted (in Euro) without impairment effects | Number of Estimates | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | |||
| EPS, adjusted (in Euro) without impairment effects | Highest | -0.16 | 0.28 | 1.04 | 1.03 | 1.49 | |||
| EPS, adjusted (in Euro) without impairment effects | Mean | -0.23 | 0.19 | 0.85 | 0.81 | 0.91 | |||
| EPS, adjusted (in Euro) without impairment effects | Consensus (Median) | 1.98 | 1.92 | 7.81 | -0.23 | 0.19 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 1.02 |
| EPS, adjusted (in Euro) without impairment effects | Lowest | -0.30 | 0.09 | 0.56 | 0.36 | 0.06 | |||
| Tax rate (%) | Number of Estimates | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | |||
| Tax rate (%) | Highest | 30.1 | 35.4 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | |||
| Tax rate (%) | Mean | 29.2 | 27.2 | 28.7 | 28.5 | 28.9 | |||
| Tax rate (%) | Consensus (Median) | 5.2 | 52.5 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 28.8 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| Tax rate (%) | Lowest | 27.0 | 10.1 | 27.0 | 26.2 | 27.0 | |||
| Distribution to shareholders per share (in Euro)*** | Number of Estimates | - | - | 6 | 5 | 5 | |||
| Distribution to shareholders per share (in Euro)*** | Highest | - | - | 1.00 | 1.02 | 1.04 | |||
| Distribution to shareholders per share (in Euro)*** | Mean | - | - | 0.88 | 0.68 | 0.61 | |||
| Distribution to shareholders per share (in Euro)*** | Consensus (Median) | - | - | 2.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Distribution to shareholders per share (in Euro)*** | Lowest | - | - | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.03 | |||
| CapEx | Number of Estimates | 4 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 7 | |||
| CapEx | Highest | 158.6 | 231.2 | 577.0 | 600.0 | 650.0 | |||
| CapEx | Mean | 144.7 | 198.1 | 550.2 | 555.6 | 549.8 | |||
| CapEx | Consensus (Median) | 115.3 | 163.3 | 403.8 | 150.1 | 192.6 | 550.0 | 583.0 | 586.6 |
| CapEx | Lowest | 120.0 | 176.0 | 525.3 | 400.9 | 358.7 | |||
| Free Cash Flow, adjusted | Number of Estimates | 3 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 6 | |||
| Free Cash Flow, adjusted | Highest | 51.9 | 83.0 | 491.5 | 124.0 | 153.6 | |||
| Free Cash Flow, adjusted | Mean | 32.3 | 59.6 | 386.8 | 67.5 | 65.6 | |||
| Free Cash Flow, adjusted | Consensus (Median) | 580.3 | 117.9 | 932.0 | 37.5 | 54.6 | 376.1 | 75.4 | 64.8 |
| Free Cash Flow, adjusted | Lowest | 7.3 | 41.2 | 307.5 | -8.0 | -23.0 | |||
| Net financial debt (+) / Net financial asset position (-) | Number of Estimates | - | - | 7 | 6 | 6 | |||
| Net financial debt (+) / Net financial asset position (-) | Highest | - | - | -256 | -112 | -41 | |||
| Net financial debt (+) / Net financial asset position (-) | Mean | - | - | -428 | -336 | -307 | |||
| Net financial debt (+) / Net financial asset position (-) | Consensus (Median) | -152 | -245 | -245 | - | - | -343 | -299 | -295 |
| Net financial debt (+) / Net financial asset position (-) | Lowest | - | - | -681 | -681 | -681 | |||
| Agriculture, Revenues | Number of Estimates | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | |||
| Agriculture, Revenues | Highest | 620.2 | 790.7 | 2,793.4 | 2,826.2 | 2,791.5 | |||
| Agriculture, Revenues | Mean | 580.7 | 713.7 | 2,712.8 | 2,627.2 | 2,612.5 | |||
| Agriculture, Revenues | Consensus (Median) | 1,162.8 | 1,114.6 | 4,465.6 | 582.5 | 690.0 | 2,725.0 | 2,638.9 | 2,623.5 |
| Agriculture, Revenues | Lowest | 557.4 | 665.1 | 2,640.9 | 2,372.5 | 2,405.0 | |||
| Agriculture, Sales volume (in million tons) | Number of Estimates | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | |||
| Agriculture, Sales volume (in million tons) | Highest | 1.87 | 2.09 | 7.24 | 7.85 | 8.05 | |||
| Agriculture, Sales volume (in million tons) | Mean | 1.74 | 1.97 | 7.11 | 7.51 | 7.67 | |||
| Agriculture, Sales volume (in million tons) | Consensus (Median) | 1.56 | 1.89 | 7.11 | 1.74 | 1.99 | 7.15 | 7.44 | 7.60 |
| Agriculture, Sales volume (in million tons) | Lowest | 1.67 | 1.69 | 6.80 | 7.30 | 7.40 | |||
| Industry+*, Revenues | Number of Estimates | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | |||
| Industry+*, Revenues | Highest | 334.2 | 402.0 | 1,310.6 | 1,285.2 | 1,337.1 | |||
| Industry+*, Revenues | Mean | 276.2 | 306.0 | 1,181.5 | 1,125.5 | 1,151.6 | |||
| Industry+*, Revenues | Consensus (Median) | 307.1 | 369.9 | 1,211.0 | 291.7 | 319.8 | 1,210.9 | 1,175.4 | 1,175.4 |
| Industry+*, Revenues | Lowest | 159.5 | 98.1 | 856.9 | 836.6 | 863.3 | |||
| Industry+*, Sales volume (in million tons) | Number of Estimates | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | |||
| Industry+*, Sales volume (in million tons) | Highest | 1.70 | 2.07 | 6.95 | 7.05 | 7.50 | |||
| Industry+*, Sales volume (in million tons) | Mean | 1.65 | 1.84 | 6.70 | 6.96 | 7.16 | |||
| Industry+*, Sales volume (in million tons) | Consensus (Median) | 1.68 | 1.87 | 6.83 | 1.65 | 1.80 | 6.73 | 6.98 | 7.09 |
| Industry+*, Sales volume (in million tons) | Lowest | 1.60 | 1.72 | 6.49 | 6.85 | 6.95 | |||
| -thereof: de-icing salt sales volume (in million tons) | Number of Estimates | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | |||
| -thereof: de-icing salt sales volume (in million tons) | Highest | 0.50 | 0.79 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.30 | |||
| -thereof: de-icing salt sales volume (in million tons) | Mean | 0.47 | 0.69 | 2.05 | 2.11 | 2.15 | |||
| -thereof: de-icing salt sales volume (in million tons) | Consensus (Median) | 0.48 | 0.68 | 2.08 | 0.47 | 0.67 | 2.01 | 2.13 | 2.15 |
| -thereof: de-icing salt sales volume (in million tons) | Lowest | 0.43 | 0.65 | 1.99 | 2.00 | 2.00 | |||
| MOP gran spot price (Brazil - cfr -US$), historic figures = fmb | Number of Estimates | - | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
| MOP gran spot price (Brazil - cfr -US$), historic figures = fmb | Highest | - | - | 449.4 | 372.0 | 420.0 | |||
| MOP gran spot price (Brazil - cfr -US$), historic figures = fmb | Mean | - | - | 406.7 | 371.0 | 377.5 | |||
| MOP gran spot price (Brazil - cfr -US$), historic figures = fmb | Consensus (Median) | 864.5 | 580.4 | 862.3 | - | - | 406.7 | 371.0 | 377.5 |
| MOP gran spot price (Brazil - cfr -US$), historic figures = fmb | Lowest | - | - | 364.0 | 370.0 | 335.0 | |||
| Ø price of the K+S Agriculture Product Portfolio (in Euro per ton) | Number of Estimates | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | |||
| Ø price of the K+S Agriculture Product Portfolio (in Euro per ton) | Highest | 346.8 | 439.7 | 403.5 | 369.6 | 365.1 | |||
| Ø price of the K+S Agriculture Product Portfolio (in Euro per ton) | Mean | 334.4 | 363.6 | 381.8 | 349.9 | 340.8 | |||
| Ø price of the K+S Agriculture Product Portfolio (in Euro per ton) | Consensus (Median) | 744.5 | 592.2 | 628.1 | 333.8 | 350.2 | 377.8 | 352.3 | 335.2 |
| Ø price of the K+S Agriculture Product Portfolio (in Euro per ton) | Lowest | 320.3 | 334.2 | 370.4 | 325.0 | 325.0 | |||
| Cash Unit Costs K+S Group (in Euro per ton** | Number of Estimates | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | |||
| Cash Unit Costs K+S Group (in Euro per ton** | Highest | 255.2 | 254.3 | 242.4 | 231.8 | 233.1 | |||
| Cash Unit Costs K+S Group (in Euro per ton** | Mean | 243.3 | 237.0 | 235.1 | 216.8 | 209.9 | |||
| Cash Unit Costs K+S Group (in Euro per ton** | Consensus (Median) | 258.2 | 246.1 | 233.4 | 242.9 | 235.8 | 233.9 | 216.6 | 205.9 |
| Cash Unit Costs K+S Group (in Euro per ton** | Lowest | 232.2 | 221.9 | 227.2 | 202.3 | 194.8 | |||
| Ø USD/EUR exchange rate, spot | Number of Estimates | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | |||
| Ø USD/EUR exchange rate, spot | Highest | 1.09 | 1.08 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.10 | |||
| Ø USD/EUR exchange rate, spot | Mean | 1.07 | 1.06 | 1.08 | 1.07 | 1.07 | |||
| Ø USD/EUR exchange rate, spot | Consensus (Median) | 1.01 | 1.02 | 1.07 | 1.08 | 1.05 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.08 |
| Ø USD/EUR exchange rate, spot | Lowest | 1.05 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 1.05 |
This document has been issued by Vara Research GmbH for information purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment advice. It is based on estimates and forecasts of various analysts regarding revenues, earnings and business developments of the relevant company. The company did not participate in the compilation of the estimates and it does not endorse them. Such estimates and forecasts cannot be independently verified by reason of the subjective character. Vara Research GmbH gives no guarantee, representation or warranty and is not responsible or liable as to its accuracy and completeness.
